 "Italy set for another tough play-off route to FIFA World Cup 2026")
Italy’s bid to secure a direct place at the FIFA World Cup 2026 came to a painful end after a heavy 1–4 loss to Norway at San Siro on Sunday. Pio Esposito briefly ignited hopes with an 11th-minute opener, but the visitors soon took control. Erling Haaland scored twice in quick succession, while Antonio Nusa and Jorgen Strand Larsen added a goal each to seal a dominant Norwegian win.
Italy and Norway were effectively fighting for the top position in Group I, the only spot guaranteeing automatic qualification. Having already suffered a 0–3 defeat in Oslo on the opening matchday, Italy needed a near-impossible nine-goal swing to finish first. Instead, they slumped to another decisive defeat.
Final Group I Standings
- Norway – 24 points (Qualified)
- Italy – 18 points (To Play-offs)
- Israel – 12 points
- Estonia – 4 points
- Moldova – 1 point
This marks the third consecutive qualification cycle in which Italy have failed to secure a direct berth, pushing them once again toward the unpredictable European play-offs—a route that has historically brought heartbreak.
A History of Missed Opportunities
2018 World Cup Play-off Failure
Italy finished second behind Spain in Group G and entered a two-leg play-off against Sweden. A 1–0 defeat in Stockholm, followed by a 0–0 draw in Milan, ended Italy’s 60-year streak of World Cup appearances.
2022 Qualification Disaster
Despite going unbeaten behind Switzerland in the group stage, Italy crashed out after a shocking 0–1 loss to North Macedonia in the single-leg semi-final of Path C. Aleksandar Trajkovski’s stoppage-time strike sealed one of Italy’s most devastating defeats.
Can Italy Prevent a Third Straight World Cup Absence?
Italy’s second-place finish in Group I ensures a play-off spot, but their recent history makes the path far from comforting. Another failure would be unprecedented for a nation with one of football’s richest traditions. The Azzurri have appeared in 18 of 22 past World Cups, earning four titles (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006) and finishing in the top four eight times.
How the UEFA Play-offs Work for World Cup 2026
The expanded 48-team format grants Europe 16 qualification slots. Twelve are awarded to group winners, while the final four come from the play-offs featuring:
12 group runners-up
4 top UEFA Nations League teams that failed to finish in their group’s top two
These 16 nations will be divided into four paths, each containing two single-leg semifinals and a final. Winners of each path qualify for the World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico.
Italy’s Play-off Route: Seeding and Key Dates
The play-off draw will take place on November 20 in Zurich. Italy, ranked ninth in the world, will be placed in Pot 1, giving them a home semifinal against a fourth-seeded Nations League team. If they progress, they will face a team from Pot 2 or Pot 3 in the final.
Play-off semifinals: March 26, 2025
Play-off finals: March 31, 2025
World Cup 2026 begins: June 11, 2026
Italy now face a high-pressure spring, with their World Cup dreams once again hanging in the balance.