Page 2 - Crisil Report

Crisil projects 3.2% headline inflation for 2025-26, sees room for rate cut

Research and ratings firm Crisil said that the headline inflation during 2025-26 is projected to be 3.2 per cent, lower than its earlier estimate of 3.5 per cent. In its latest report, Crisil said that the moderation implies a decline of 140 basis points in CPI inflation during this financial year, which is likely to give space for monetary easing. It said the RBI may cut rates by another 25 basis points this year. According to Crisil, lower inflation and reduced interest rates should increase domestic demand in the economy as global headwinds mount. The report also said that the excessive rains during the kharif season is a risk as it could cause disruptions in key horticulture and foodgrain-growing regions like Punjab which is facing its worst floods in four decades. CPI inflation inched up to 2.1 per cent in August 2025, from 1.6 per cent in July, moving above the RBI tolerance threshold of two per cent. Food inflation has started to move up from low levels but trails the head

GST cut to drive 200 bps boost in two-wheelers, 100 bps in PVs: Crisil

GST Council's two-rate tax structure to cut vehicle prices by up to 10%, supporting festive auto sales for two-wheelers, small cars, and compact SUVs

India's shrimp exports expected to fall 15-18% as US hikes tariff: Crisil

India's shrimp export volumes are expected to contract by 15-18 per cent this fiscal following the US decision to raise import tariffs on the commodity to 58.26 per cent from August 27, a report said on Friday. This will lead to a fall in realisations even as exporters look to change their product mix and scout for alternative export destinations, the report by Crisil Ratings said. Thus, revenues, which were stagnant for the past four fiscals, will decline 18-20 per cent year-on-year this financial year despite some cushion from a surge in shipments in the first quarter in anticipation of the tariff hike. In FY25, India exported around USD 5 billion of shrimps, of which the US accounted for around 48 per cent. Lower revenues, coupled with the inability to pass on the tariff burden to customers, will erode the operating profit margin by 150-200 basis points. The combination of lower revenues and subdued margins will weaken the debt protection metrics of players, following which the

US tariff may cut FY26 revenue of Indian diamond polishers by 30%: Crisil

India's natural diamond polishing industry faces a 28-30 per cent fall in revenues to USD 12.50 billion in this financial year as the steep 50 per cent tariff imposed on Indian exports by the US kicks in, a report said on Thursday. An additional 25 per cent tariffs on Indian products entering the American market came to effect on Wednesday after the US administration's move to penalise India for purchasing Russian oil. This is on top of the 25 per cent the reciprocal tariff imposed by US President Donald Trump in April. During 2024-25, the revenue of the natural diamond polishing industry in India stood at around USD 16 billion, Crisil Ratings said in a report. The blow will follow a 40 per cent degrowth over the past three fiscals because of a fall in both prices and sales volume of natural diamonds as demand in the US and China dropped, and competition from lab-grown diamonds rose, it added. Crisil Ratings said 50 per cent tariffs, effective this week, makes exports to the US tou

Gautam Solar gets Crisil rating upgrade to 'A-/Stable' on strong growth

Renewal energy solutions provider Gautam Solar on Tuesday said Crisil has upgraded its long-term rating to 'A-/Stable' from 'BBB+/Stable' earlier. This achievement highlights the strong fundamentals of Gautam Solar and its solid growth trajectory, constantly strengthening its reputation as a reliable partner in the renewable energy market and a provider of preferred modules for large projects, a company statement said. According to the statement, Gautam Solar Pvt Ltd (GSPL), having 28+ years of experience in solar module manufacturing, has received the long-term rating of CRISIL A-/Stable and a short-term rating of CRISIL A2+, a recognition that signifies the company's financial strength, capability, longer-term reliability and bankability of its solar modules. Earlier, the firm had a CRISIL BBB+/Stable long-term and CRISIL A2 short-term rating. The major upgrade to CRISIL A- is a true measure of Gautam Solar's strengthened business profile, strong financials, and sustained track .

Readymade garment revenue to halve in FY26 as US tariff kicks in: Crisil

Crisil warns India's garment sector revenue growth will slow to 3-5% in FY26 as US tariffs rise to 50%, eroding competitiveness against Bangladesh, Vietnam and China

Demand to reinforce steel MSMEs amid rising costs: Crisil SME Tracker

The production of long steel increased 8.7 per cent Y-o-Y in Q1FY26, with mid and small steel mills accounting for 72.4 per cent of this production

Fund pick: Invesco India Large & Mid Cap Fund is on a growth accelerator

The scheme's investment objective is to ensure long-term capital appreciation through a portfolio that predominantly invests in equity and equity-related securities of large- and mid-cap companies

Revenue of large, diversified EPC companies to grow 9-11% in FY26: Crisil

Crisil said revenue growth of EPC companies will be supported by robust order books, higher infrastructure spending and improved order mix, with margins set to expand

MSMEs in textiles, diamonds, chemicals to be most hit by US tariffs: Report

The imposition of higher tariffs by the US will significantly impact the micro, small and medium enterprise sector, which accounts for around 45 per cent of India's exports, while MSMEs in textiles, diamonds and chemicals are likely to be the most hit, a report by CRISIL Intelligence said. The US levies ad valorem duty of 25 per cent on Indian goods. However, it has imposed an additional 25 per cent tariff which will be effective from August 27 this year. This brings the total tariffs to 50 per cent, which will have a meaningful impact on several sectors in India, the report said. Textiles, gems and jewellery, which account for 25 per cent of India's exports to the US, are likely to be most affected. The MSMEs have more than 70 per cent share in these sectors and will be hit hard, the report said. Another sector which is likely to face the heat is chemicals, where MSMEs have a 40 per cent share. The gems and jewellery sector at Surat in Gujarat, which dominates diamond exports, wil

MoRTH tightens HAM norms; 25% of developers may be barred from bidding

Crisil says revised financial and technical norms for HAM projects could restrict 25 per cent of current developers, with stricter net worth and execution track record criteria

Thali costs fall in July, defying seasonal trends, says Crisil report

Key meal ingredients' prices, however, continued to trend lower from a year ago

US tariff hike to cut India's shrimp exports by 7-9% in FY26: Crisil

The proposed increase in tariff by the US, along with additional financial penalties, is likely to impact shrimp export volumes by 7-9 per cent this financial year, Crisil Ratings said on Friday. Indian shrimp exporters face an unprecedented new challenge in the US market, which contributes close to 48 per cent of their exports, Crisil Ratings Senior Director Rahul Guha said in a statement. US President Donald Trump has announced 25 per cent tariffs on India, plus a 'penalty' for its trade with Russia. The tariffs will come into effect from August 7. "With the proposed increase in tariff by the US, along with additional financial penalties, countervailing duty of 5.77 per cent imposed last year and the existing anti-dumping duties, India will be one of the highest taxed major shrimp exporters in the US market," he noted. In contrast, Ecuador, the largest shrimp exporter globally, faces just 10 per cent tariff and countervailing duties of 3-4 per cent in the US, he said. The operat

Demand to drive gems & jewellery growth as exports slow: Crisil SME tracker

This highly fragmented and labour-intensive industry is characterised by low capital intensity and high reliance on imported inputs, such as gold and rough diamonds

Tyre industry to grow 7-8% in FY26, driven by replacement demand: Crisil

Crisil expects India's Rs 1 trillion tyre industry to grow 7-8% in FY26, mainly driven by replacement demand, while OEM volumes and global trade risks continue to pose challenges

Tyre industry revenue to rise 7-8% in FY26 on replacement demand: Crisil

The domestic tyre industry is expected to witness revenue growth of 7-8 per cent this fiscal year, driven by replacement demand that accounts for half of annual sales, according to a report by Crisil Ratings. The segment is expected to post growth even as offtake by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) is likely to be subdued, the report stated. It also noted that the rising premiumisation is expected to give a slight leg-up to realisations. However, escalating trade tensions and the risk of dumping by Chinese producers diverting inventories because of US tariffs could pose challenges, the report stated. Operating profitability is likely to remain steady at 13-13.5 per cent, supported by stable input costs and healthy capacity utilisation, it said. This, along with strong accruals, lean balance sheets and calibrated capital spending should help sustain the sector's stable credit outlook, the report stated. "Our analysis of India's top six tyre makers, catering to all vehicle .

Private sector debt recast firms' AUM may further shrink, says CRISIL

CRISIL forecasts a 4-6% drop in AUM for private asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) in FY26 due to subdued acquisitions of stressed loans and potential disruptions from loan securitisation

Thali prices drop in June 2025, driven by lower vegetable and broiler costs

The cost of both vegetarian and non-vegetarian thalis decreased year-on-year in June, driven by lower vegetable prices, but some input costs, like oil and LPG, saw an increase

Cost of veg and non-veg thali drops in June as vegetable prices ease

Despite the yearly decline, the cost of both vegetarian and non-veg thalis rose on a monthly basis in June, due to a rise in tomato prices, according to Crisil's Roti Rice Rate report

Debt securitisation volume rises to ₹49,000 crore in April-June quarter

Total number of originators in these securitisations, wherein a lender hands over future receivables on a single or a bunch of loans to a new entity usually on a discount, was around 90, Crisil report