India Inflation

Today's opinion pieces offer a sharp mix of macro and culture: China's demand shortfall, Prada's Kolhapuri move, the rupee's policy trilemma, why RBI needs better data, and a candid chess memoir.

November 2025 WPI-based inflation: The negative rate of inflation in November is primarily due to a decrease in prices of food articles, mineral oils, crude petroleum and natural gas

WPI inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global cues would dictate trends in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides this, movement of rupee against the US dollar and crude oil would also be tracked by investors, they noted. Markets remained volatile and ended the last week in negative territory. Last week, the BSE benchmark index declined by 444.71 points, or 0.51 per cent. "This week features an active domestic data calendar, with the release of India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation and trade balance figures. Developments related to India-US trade discussions will remain in focus, while globally, the performance and macro cues from US markets are expected to influence near-term sentiment," Ajit Mishra -- SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said. Foreign investors pulled out Rs 17,955 crore (USD 2 billion) from Indian equities in the first two weeks of this month, taking the total outflow to Rs 1.6 lakh crore (USD 18.4 billion) in ...

Food deflation eases to -3.91%, rural inflation turns positive at 0.10%, but gold & silver surge above 58% keeps core elevated

Besides cutting interest rates by 25 bps, the RBI also revised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2025-26 (FY26) upward to 7.3 per cent from the current estimate of 6.8 per cent

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank does not target exchange-rate levels and intervenes only to curb abnormal volatility

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran expressed hope that the currency will recover next year

India's economy expanded at a sharper-than-expected clip of 8.2 per cent in the July-September quarter, prompting analysts to raise their full-year growth estimates to above 7 per cent

Agriculture was expected to do well and growth at 3.5 per cent is supported by a good kharif harvest expected, which will reflect more in Q3, said Madan Sabnavis

The central bank's inflation miss in the first three months of the year was 0.7 percentage points - the biggest gap in almost six years, and well above economists' projections

October 2025 WPI-based inflation: The negative rate of inflation is primarily due to a decrease in prices of food articles, crude petroleum & natural gas, electricity, and mineral oils

Inflation could stay low for some time, but should be viewed with caution amid global risks and climate change

October CPI-based inflation: India's food inflation dropped sharply in October, falling to -5.02 per cent from -2.28 per cent in September

Economists at the BS BFSI Summit said India's inflation-targeting framework has anchored expectations and strengthened RBI's credibility, but needs more flexibility and stronger policy coordination

After slashing repo rates for three consecutive months since February, the MPC kept the rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent in August

Recent GST rate cuts will help lower inflation over the next year and also bring a further upside bias to the country's growth prospects, the Finance Ministry said in its monthly report. However, "this is not the time to drop our guard. Uncertainties and risks persist," it said, adding that for now, the risks appear manageable, but they are there. If tariff uncertainties persist, there will be an impact on export sectors, with spillover risk to domestic employment, income and consumption. The decision by the US government to impose a fee hike on new H1B visa-seekers is a reminder of the risks of trade uncertainties, affecting the hitherto unaffected services sector, the Finance Ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review. The central government's reform agenda is expected to cushion the economy against the adverse effects of trade disruptions, it added. "The near-term outlook, therefore, is characterised by steady, reform-driven growth rooted in macroeconomic discipline and adapti

Research and ratings firm Crisil said that the headline inflation during 2025-26 is projected to be 3.2 per cent, lower than its earlier estimate of 3.5 per cent. In its latest report, Crisil said that the moderation implies a decline of 140 basis points in CPI inflation during this financial year, which is likely to give space for monetary easing. It said the RBI may cut rates by another 25 basis points this year. According to Crisil, lower inflation and reduced interest rates should increase domestic demand in the economy as global headwinds mount. The report also said that the excessive rains during the kharif season is a risk as it could cause disruptions in key horticulture and foodgrain-growing regions like Punjab which is facing its worst floods in four decades. CPI inflation inched up to 2.1 per cent in August 2025, from 1.6 per cent in July, moving above the RBI tolerance threshold of two per cent. Food inflation has started to move up from low levels but trails the head

Consumer inflation, as measured by the annual change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 2.10 per cent in August from 1.55 per cent in July

India's services PMI rose to 62.9 in August, the steepest expansion since 2010, driven by strong demand, new orders, and resilient job creation amid rising costs

Economists back headline CPI as India's inflation target, stressing food's heavy weight in consumption and urging RBI to retain the 4% benchmark with the current tolerance band