China, UAE may cut Iran condensate imports if Trump tightens curbs: FGE

Iran's condensate exports to China and the United Arab Emirates will probably decline if US President-elect Donald Trump tightens sanctions on Tehran, but supply to Venezuela would continue, analysts at consultancy FGE said. 

Offsetting the loss in Iranian supply, more condensate will be produced from projects in Qatar and Saudi Arabia from 2026, they added. 

Condensate, an ultra light oil, is typically processed at splitters to produce mainly petrochemical feedstock naphtha or used as a diluent for heavy crude such as those from Venezuela. 

Iran currently exports 100,000-150,000 barrels per day (bpd) of condensate which mainly goes to China, Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates, according to FGE. 

If Trump tightens sanctions on Iran, its condensate exports to UAE and China will likely fall or stop completely as there are less buyers for the ultra light oil than for Iranian crude, Iman Nasseri, a managing director at FGE, told the Condensate & Naphtha Forum. 

However, Iranian condensate exports to Venezuela, at around 30,000 bpd, would continue, he added. 

The Middle East produces around 2.5 million bpd of condensate, accounting for about 40 per cent of global supply, with more production to come from gas fields in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. 

Qatar's North Field Expansion project, expected to start from the first quarter of 2026, will add 400,000 bpd condensate capacity though 2030, said FGE analyst Samuel Ho. 

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is expected to launch the Phase 1 of its Jafurah Basin development by 2026 with potentially 100,000 bpd of condensate production capacity, and Phase 2 sometime in 2028 with potentially over 200,000 bpd of condensate production capacity, he added. 

More condensate supply is expected to come from Asia, Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as Africa, Ho said, as countries boost natural gas production for energy transition.