Himalayan region to experience hotter summer, more rain, says ICIMOD

Temperatures are expected to be two degrees Celsius higher than average across the whole Hindu Kush Himalayan region this summer, according to a new analysis by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

The ICIMOD also predicted that India, Nepal, Pakistan as well as China's Tibetan Autonomous Region will receive above-average rainfall.

With floods the leading cause of deaths and economic damage in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, and close to three-quarters (72.5 per cent) of all floods from 1980 to 2024 occurring during the summer monsoon season, experts warn disaster agencies and communities to be prepared for a possible rise in climate risks.

The forecasts we've studied are unanimous in predicting a hotter monsoon across the entire HKH, with a trend towards higher-than-normal rainfall in major parts of the region, Arun Bhakta Shrestha, senior advisor at ICIMOD, said.

Rising temperatures and more extreme rain raise the risk of water-induced disasters such as floods, landslides, and debris flows, and have longer-term impacts on glaciers, snow reserves, and permafrost, a press release issued by the ICIMOD said.

Lower rainfall, meanwhile, particularly in water-stressed countries such as Afghanistan, may pose risks to food and water security in a country with already extraordinarily high levels of malnutrition, it added.

Given the extremely high exposure and risks in our region, we urgently need impact-based early warning systems adopted at scale, and for government and donor support to build up disaster preparedness to increase, said Saswata Sanyal, manager of ICIMOD's Disaster Risk Reduction work.

Climate change by driving more intense rainfall, permafrost degradation, and glacier retreat that can trigger floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods is the primary cause of the increasing frequency and magnitude of mountain hazards in the HKH region, states the ICIMOD report.

Rise in temperature combined with wetter monsoons can also raise the risk of heat stress and waterborne disease outbreaks, such as dengue, warn experts.

We know that worldwide, monitoring and prediction are playing an increasingly powerful role in safeguarding people and economic activity from rising climate risks, said Sarthak Shrestha, remote-sensing and geo-information associate at ICIMOD.

In its country-wise forecasts, the ICIMOD has stated that in India, there is a strong probability that southwest monsoon seasonal precipitation will be above normal.

For Nepal, it predicts above normal precipitation and both minimum and maximum temperatures are forecast to be above long-term averages.