Nuvama bets on HDFC AMC, KFin as SIPs hold firm, lump-sum flows rebound

The Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) released its November 2025 data on Thursday. Post the release, Nuvama Institutional Equities has suggested betting on HDFC AMC (target ₹3,510), Nippon Life India Asset Management (target ₹1,090), and KFin Technologies (target ₹1,480), citing improving industry flows and rising asset under management (AUM).

SIP strength provides a stable growth base

Nuvama highlighted that monthly systematic investment plan (SIP) inflows stayed near record levels at ₹29,400 crore, showing only marginal softening. For FY26TD, SIP-driven active equity net inflows stood at ₹2.3 trillion, reinforcing the view that retail systematic money remains the key support for industry volumes and revenue visibility for asset management companies (AMCs).

 

Lump-sum recovery improves near-term flow momentum

The brokerage pointed to a strong rebound in lump-sum flows in November, with net lump-sum inflows rising to ₹9,880 crore. It added that this rebound, alongside steady SIPs, helped push active equity flows higher even as the broader commentary noted that flows remain “weak” relative to the earlier part of the cycle.

 

Active equity flows through existing schemes/NFOs were ₹36,700 crore/₹2,700 crore, with inflows into existing schemes up 32.2 per cent month-on-month (M-o-M), while NFO flows fell 40 per cent M-o-M.

Market gains lift AUM

Nuvama noted that strong benchmark performance also boosted the industry’s asset base: the Nifty 50 rose 1.9 per cent M-o-M in November, helping total active equity AUM increase 1.5 per cent M-o-M to ₹44.4 trillion. For FY26TD, active equity net flows were ₹2.9 trillion, which Nuvama said is about 8 per cent of opening AUM.

Where the money is going: Diversified categories lead

In November, flows were concentrated in diversified equity categories:

• Large & midcap funds: 27 per cent of net inflows
• Flexi-cap funds: 20.7 per cent
• Small-cap funds: 11.2 per cent
• Thematic funds: 4.7 per cent

Nuvama’s view is that steady flows into diversified categories is supportive for AMCs, as they reduce reliance on one-off NFO spikes and suggest more “durable” demand.  (Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.)