Italy's Meloni to test her role as EU-US bridge in talks with Trump

Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni will test her mettle as a bridge between the EU and the United States when she meets with US President Donald Trump in the White House on Thursday, the first European leader to have a face-to-face with Trump since he announced, and then suspended, 20% tariffs on European exports.

Meloni secured the meeting at a critical juncture in the trade war as Italy's leader, but she also has, in a sense, been knighted to represent the European Union. She has been in close contact with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen ahead of the trip, and "the outreach is closely coordinated," a commission spokeswoman said this week.

We know we are in a difficult moment," Meloni said this week in Rome. "Most certainly, I am well aware of what I represent, and what I am defending."  The European Union is defending what it calls the most important commercial relationship in the world,' with annual trade reaching 1.6 trillion euros (USD 1.8 trillion).

Trade negotiations fall under the European Commission's authority, which is pushing for a zero-for-zero tariff deal with the US. However, Trump administration officials in talks with the EU have yet to publicly show signs of relenting on Trump's insistence that a baseline 10% tariff be charged on all foreign imports. He paused for 90 days a retaliatory increase to 20%.

The pause has raised some hopes for negotiations, and Meloni's margins for progress are more in gaining clarity on Trump's goals rather than outright concessions, experts say.

It is a very delicate mission, said Fabian Zuleeg, chief economist at the European Policy Center think tank in Brussels. There is the whole trade agenda, and while she's not officially negotiating, we know that Trump likes to have this kind of informal exchange, which in a sense is a negotiation. So it's a lot on her plate."  As the leader of a far-right party, Meloni is ideologically aligned with Trump on issues including curbing migration, promoting traditional values and skepticism toward multilateral institutions. But stark differences have emerged in Meloni's unwavering support for Ukraine.

After being the only European leader to attend the Jan 20 inauguration, Meloni has responded with studied restraint as abrupt shifts in US policy under Trump have frayed the trans-Atlantic alliance. She has denounced the tariffs as "wrong" and warned that dividing the West would be disastrous for everyone, after Trump's heated White House exchange with Ukraine's president.

She has been very cautious,' said Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at the London-based Teneo consultancy. It is what we need when we have a counterpart that is changing every day.'  Italy maintains a 40 billion euro trade surplus with the United States, its largest with any country, fuelled by Americans' appetite for Italian sparkling wine, foodstuffs like Parmigiano Reggiano hard cheese and Parma ham, and Italian luxury fashion. These are all sectors critical to the Italian economy, and mostly supported by small- and medium-sized producers who are core center-right voters.

All in all, I think she will focus on the very strong economic and trade relations that Italy has with the United States, not just in terms of exports, but also services and energy," said Antonio Villafranca, vice president of the ISPI think tank in Milan. For example, Italy could even consider importing more gas from the US.

The meeting comes against the backdrop of growing concerns over global uncertainty generated by the escalating tariff wars. Italy's growth forecast for this year has already been slashed from 1% to 0.5% as a result.

Meloni is also expected to address Trump's demand for NATO partners to increase military spending to 2% of gross domestic product. Italy's spending, at 1.49% of GDP, is among the lowest in Europe.

Experts cautioned, however, against raising expectations over any concrete progress.

The best strategy has been to be very circumspect: Get there, get the meeting, get the photo opportunity, Piccoli said. If she is able to come back, and give a sense of how Washington wants to frame future relations on trade, defense and Ukraine policy, that would be a huge win.