 "Viral manga revives quake fears, Japan tourism hit ahead of summer peak")
Holiday bookings to Japan from major Asian markets have plummeted ahead of the peak summer season, driven by a resurgence of online rumours predicting a catastrophic earthquake. The speculation stems from a decades-old manga by artist Ryo Tatsuki, which has recently gone viral once again, Bloomberg reported.
Tatsuki’s graphic novel, The Future I Saw, originally published in 1999 and reissued in 2021 with new content, includes a prediction of a massive earthquake in July 2025. The work portrays Japan being engulfed by tsunami waves and mentions impacts on neighbouring regions such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Philippines. Claims that Tatsuki foresaw the devastating 2011 quake have given new fuel to social media speculation, leading to widespread unease among potential travellers.
Viral posts drive travel slump
Posts and videos warning people to avoid Japan this summer have garnered millions of views across YouTube and Facebook. Despite scientific consensus that earthquakes cannot be predicted with accuracy, this viral panic is already affecting tourism numbers.
An analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence, using ForwardKeys data, shows a notable drop in airline bookings from markets such as Taiwan, South Korea and particularly Hong Kong. Since April, average bookings from Hong Kong are down by 50 per cent year-on-year, with reservations for late June through early July plunging by as much as 83 per cent.
In response to waning demand, Greater Bay Airlines and Hong Kong Airlines have reduced flight frequencies to Japan.
Authorities push back on quake speculation
Officials in Japan have urged the public to remain calm and ignore unverified predictions. Miyagi prefecture Governor Yoshihiro Murai warned last month that the rumours were beginning to damage the region's tourism sector. The Japan Meteorological Agency also reiterated via its website that no technology currently exists to pinpoint the timing of earthquakes.
Japan, situated along the Pacific Ring of Fire, is among the most earthquake-prone nations in the world. The memory of the 2011 disaster — when a powerful quake triggered a tsunami and nuclear crisis in Fukushima — continues to heighten public sensitivity to seismic threats.
Airlines brace for impact
While overall tourism to Japan remains strong, with a record 3.9 million foreign visitors in April driven largely by the weaker yen, industry analysts warn that the quake rumours are casting a shadow over short-term prospects, the news report said.
‘The quake speculations are definitely having a negative impact on Japan tourism and it will slow the boom temporarily,’ said Eric Zhu, an aviation and defence analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. ‘Travellers are taking a risk-averse approach given the plethora of other short-haul options in the region.’
Zhu predicts more airlines could suffer in the coming months as a result of declining bookings and lower passenger loads. He identified Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd — which includes Hong Kong Express — as particularly vulnerable, given that nearly 20 per cent of its planned seat capacity through the autumn is allocated to Japanese routes, the news report said.
Myth meets science — and fear
Further increasing the anxiety is commentary from a well-known feng shui master in Hong Kong, who recently advised followers to steer clear of Japan this summer. Social media users have also cited a February report by a Japanese government task force, which raised the probability of a major earthquake along the Nankai Trough occurring within the next 30 years to approximately 80 per cent. However, scientists emphasise that this does not imply an event is imminent or tied to a specific date.
Tatsuki, now retired and residing in Japan, responded to the renewed attention by urging a focus on preparedness rather than panic.
‘I, myself, would like to take precautions such as stockpiling supplies in preparation for disasters and confirming evacuation routes when going out,’ she told Bloomberg in a statement. ‘I intend to remain vigilant on a daily basis as we approach July 2025.’