Loss of US intelligence may harm Ukraine more than a halt in weapons

By Courtney McBride and Natalia Drozdiak

 

The Trump administration has threatened to suspend aid to Ukraine unless its government accepts a peace framework by Thanksgiving. The loss of intelligence sharing by the US could prove more devastating than a cutoff of weapons. 

Intelligence from the Americans has been a crucial element of the country’s ability to withstand the Russian invasion. In terms of weapons, Europe has filled some of the gaps as President Donald Trump has cut off the steady flow of arms that began after Russia’s invasion and continued through the end of Joe Biden’s presidency. 

 

“I don’t think the cutting off of arms is a serious threat because the United States isn’t actually providing arms,” said Celeste Wallander, a former top Pentagon official for international security affairs during the Biden administration, though halting European purchases of American weapons for Ukraine could be damaging. 

 

“The real key would be the intelligence sharing and the ability of Ukraine to the extent that Ukraine has been able to plan its defences, to anticipate Russian moves, to track threats, threat missiles, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and also track” drones, Wallander said.

 

The US and Ukraine have been here before — Washington suspended weapons deliveries and intelligence sharing with Kyiv following a public Oval Office argument between Trump and Zelenskyy on Feb 28. That decision harmed both Ukraine’s defences as well as confidence in US backing among allies.

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday said the Trump administration proposal — to cede territory to Russia and cap the size of his country’s military — forces a choice between accommodating a once-reliable partner and maintaining its territory and control of its defences.

 

If the Trump administration makes good on its threat, the effects on Ukraine might not be immediate but could eventually be disastrous.

 

“Now, it’s one of the most difficult moments in our history,” Zelenskyy said in a video address to the nation on Friday after he was presented with a 28-point peace plan brokered by the US and Russia. “Ukraine may face a hard choice: either the loss of our dignity or the loss of our key partner.”

 

While American weapons continue to arrive in Ukraine, the Trump administration has been adamant going forward those arms be sold rather than donated, through an arrangement with Nato in which European governments purchase US-made arms for the Ukrainians.

 

An American delegation led by US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is in Kyiv on a fact-finding mission regarding the battlefield situation, and had originally planned to discuss technology development, according to a US official.

 

The Pentagon referred questions to the White House, where Trump asserted Friday that the peace proposal would involve Ukraine conceding land “that they will lose in a short period of time.” 

 

It is unclear whether the threatened pullback of US support would include suspension of deliveries of assistance funded previously. 

 

Under President Joe Biden and with bipartisan congressional backing, the US provided two streams of taxpayer-funded military assistance to Ukraine: Items drawn from US military stockpiles using Presidential Drawdown Authority, and new weapons purchased from defense companies using Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funds. Deliveries of weapons purchased using USAI money have continued under the Trump administration.