New NASA data lowers asteroid 2024 YR4's Earth impact risk to just 0.004%

After estimating an initial 3.1 per cent impact probability, Nasa's latest calculations revealed that the asteroid 2024 YR4 has near-zero chances of hitting Earth in 2032

NASA has confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 poses no immediate threat to Earth, easing initial concerns about a potential collision in 2032. Early calculations raised alarms, estimating a 3.1% impact probability—one of the highest-ever recorded for an asteroid. 

 

However, with new observations, NASA has drastically revised the risk down to just 0.004% as of February 25, effectively ruling out any significant danger.

Initial reports were threatening

The asteroid was first spotted on 27 January 2024 by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile. Early projections of the asteroid sent shockwaves through global space agencies, as it initially seemed to be on a potential collision path with Earth in December 2032.

 

Seeing the potential threats, the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA alerted and quickly added it to their watchlists. Early observation escalated the risk as NASA recorded the probability of its impact around 2.3% on February 7, which surged to 3.1% by February 18. At that time, asteroid 2024 YR4 was deemed a significant global threat and became a major topic of discussion among space agencies. It had reached Level 3 on the risk scale—the highest classification for a near-Earth object in recent history.

2024 YR4’s earth hitting chances drop

However, the latest calculation on February 19 reduced the impact probability to 1.5%. This probability further shrank to 0.28% by overnight observations on February 19–20. 

 

Now, the latest observation by Nasa on February 25 confirmed that the risk had plummeted to 0.004%. "There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon on December 22, 2032. That probability is currently 1.7%," NASA stated.

Early warnings were due to uncertainty in our data: MIT Scientist

The asteroid’s hitting probability shrank due to further observations, improved tracking and calculation. MIT scientist Richard Binzel explained that early warnings were issued due to a huge margin of error. 

 

"The initial risk was mainly due to the large uncertainty in our data. As more observations were collected, the impact probability dropped to nearly zero," he said.

Nasa continue its observations

Although 2024 YR4 is no longer a threat, still NASA will continue monitoring the city killer asteroid using observatories funded by the Planetary Defense Coordination Office. 

 

Apart from Nasa, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will also observe the asteroid in March to share better insights about the asteroid’s size and composition.

 

NASA scientists are emphasising that though 2024 YR4 is not a threat any more, it is a crucial opportunity to test planetary defence systems and refine asteroid tracking methods. 

 

Hence, the space agency continues to keep an eye on all near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) with potential impact risks, with the latest data available on NASA’s Sentry system.