OPEC sees solid second-half of 2025 for world economy, trims 2026 supply

OPEC said on Monday it expected the global economy to remain resilient in the second half of this year despite concerns about trade conflicts and trimmed its forecast for growth in oil supply from producers outside the wider OPEC+ group in 2026.

 

In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged in 2025 and 2026, after reductions in April, saying the economic outlook was robust despite trade concerns.

 

"The global economy has outperformed expectations so far in the first half of 2025," OPEC said in the report.

 

"This strong base from the first half of 2025 is anticipated to provide support and sufficient momentum into a sound second half of 2025. However, the growth trend is expected to moderate slightly on a quarterly basis."

 

OPEC also said supply from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation - the formal name for OPEC+ - will rise by about 730,000 barrels per day in 2026, down 70,000 bpd from last month's forecast.

 

Lower supply growth from outside OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, would make it easier for the wider group to balance the market. Rapid growth from U.S. shale and from other countries has weighed on prices in recent years.