Tropical storm Rafael forms in Caribbean, could hit Cuba as hurricane

Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday in the Caribbean and will bring heavy rain to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before strengthening into a hurricane and likely hitting Cuba, forecasters said.

Later in the week, it also is expected to bring heavy rainfall to Florida and portions of the US Southeast, according to the US National Hurricane Centre in Miami.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for Jamaica, and a hurricane watch was in effect for the Cayman Islands and for parts of Cuba including the provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm watch was issued for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas in Cuba.

A tropical storm watch also was issued for the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas.

The storm was located about 245 kilometres south of Kingston, Jamaica. It had maximum sustained winds of 75 kph while moving north-northwest at 15 kph, the centre said.

The storm was expected to move near Jamaica late Monday, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday as a hurricane and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Most forecasts show the storm peaking as a Category 1 hurricane, but conditions over the next few days will favour strengthening so we'll need to monitor how quickly it organises, and a stronger hurricane can't be ruled out, wrote Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert, in an analysis Monday.

On Monday morning, the government of the Cayman Islands offered people sandbags and announced schools would close on Tuesday.

Residents are urged to take immediate precautions to protect themselves and their properties, the government said in a statement.

Schools in Jamaica also were scheduled to close on Tuesday, with government offices closing on Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the Jamaica Observer newspaper reported a large landslide in a rural area north of the Kingston capital on Sunday that officials blamed on persistent rains ahead of the potential storm. No injuries were reported, but a couple of communities were left isolated.

Heavy rainfall will affect the western Caribbean with totals of 3 to 6 inches (7 to 15 centimetres) and up to 9 inches (23 cm) expected locally in Jamaica and parts of Cuba. Flooding and mudslides are possible.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the season.

On the opposite side of the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Patty dissipated.