Trump ally getting elected in Poland could alter EU and Ukraine policies

Poland has elected Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and staunch nationalist, as its next president in a closely watched vote that signals a resurgence of right-wing populism in the heart of Europe.

Nawrocki, who is set to take office on Aug 6, is expected to shape the country's domestic and foreign policy in ways that could strain ties with Brussels while aligning the Central European nation of nearly 38 million people more closely with the administration of President Donald Trump in the United States. 

 

Here are some key takeaways:  Conservative populism on the rise  Nawrocki's victory underscores the enduring appeal of nationalist rhetoric among about half of the country along the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union, and its deep social divisions.

The 42-year-old historian who had no previous political experience built his campaign on patriotic themes, traditional Catholic values, and a vow to defend Poland's sovereignty against the EU and larger European nations like Germany.

His win also reflects the appeal of right-wing nationalism across Europe, where concerns about migration, national sovereignty, and cultural identity have led to surging support for parties on the right - even the far right in recent times.

Far-right candidates did very well in Poland's first round of voting two weeks earlier, underlining the appeal of the nationalist and conservative views. Nawrocki picked up many of those votes.

As his supporters celebrate his win, those who voted for the defeated liberal candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, worry that it will hasten the erosion of liberal democratic norms. 

 

Prime Minister Donald Tusk's troubles  Nawrocki's presidency presents a direct challenge to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who returned to power in late 2023 pledging to mend relations with the EU and restore judicial independence which Brussels said was eroded by Law and Justice, the party that backed Nawrocki.

But Tusk's coalition - a fragile alliance of centrists, leftists, and agrarian conservatives - has struggled to push through key promises including a civil union law for same-sex couples and a less restrictive abortion law.

Nawrocki, who opposes such measures, will have the power to veto legislation, complicating Tusk's agenda and potentially triggering political gridlock. 

 

Ties with the Trump administration  Nawrocki's election could signal a stronger relationship between Poland and the Trump administration.

Poland and the US are close allies, and there are 10,000 US troops stationed in Poland, but Tusk and his partners in the past have been critical of Trump. Nawrocki, however, has a worldview closely aligned with Trump and his Make America Great Again ethos.

Trump welcomed Nawrocki to the White House a month ago and his administration made clear in other ways that he was its preferred candidate.

A shifting focus on Ukraine  While Nawrocki has voiced support for Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression, he does not back Ukrainian membership in NATO and has questioned the long-term costs of aid - particularly support for refugees.

His rhetoric has at times echoed that of Trump, for instance by accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of what he said was insufficient gratitude for Poland's assistance. With growing public fatigue over helping Ukrainian refugees, Nawrocki's approach could shift Poland's posture from strong ally to conditional partner if the war drags on much longer. 

 

Ties with the EU  The election result is a setback for the EU, which had welcomed Tusk's return in 2023 as a signal of renewed pro-European engagement.

Nawrocki and the Law and Justice party have criticized what nationalists view as EU overreach into Poland's national affairs, especially regarding judicial reforms and migration policy.

While the president does not control day-to-day diplomacy, Nawrocki's symbolic and veto powers could frustrate Brussels' efforts to bring Poland back into alignment with bloc standards, particularly on rule-of-law issues.

Market jitters  Though an EU member, Poland has its own currency, the zloty, which weakened slightly on Monday morning, reflecting investor concerns over potential policy instability and renewed tensions with EU institutions.

Billions of euros in EU funding has been linked to judicial reforms which Tusk's government will now be unlikely to enact without presidential cooperation.