Pharmaceuticals firms are expected to post good numbers during the second quarter (July-September) aided by currency tailwind, says an IDFC Securities Research.
The research report claims that profit after tax (PAT) growth during second quarter for leading pharma companies would be around 28% driven by translation gains on forex liablities, considering a 5% rupee appreciation on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Rupee depreciation on a year-on-year (yoy) basis is around 20%. Aided by that, the IDFC report expects a strong growth of 22% (yoy) in revenues.
Coming to individual companies, the report says that Dr Reddy's Labs is expected to grow by 23% in terms of revenues led by strong growth in US generic sales which is estimated to grow by 45%. Riding on strong revenue numbers, the company's PAT is expected to clock a 30% yoy growth.
Q2E Forecast for Pharma Companies:
| Company | Revenue Growth (E) yoy | EBITDA (E) yoy | PAT (E) yoy |
| Cipla | 18 | 24 | 20 |
| Ranbaxy | 28 | 15.4 | - |
| Dr Reddy's Labs | 23 | 28 | 30 |
| Lupin | 38 | 18.5 | - |
| Sun Pharma | 43 | 39.5 (ex-Taro) | 37 |
| Glenmark | 22 | 21.3 | - |
| Torrent Pharma | 19 | 23.4 | - |
| GSK Pharma | 14 | 22 | 31 |
| Biocon | 13 | 20.7 | - |
| Dishman Pharma | 19 | 21 | - |
Lupin's India business is expected to grow by 18%, together with strong growth in US and Japan markets, thereby boosting its revenues by 38%. Export formulations, on the other hand, is expected to drive revenue growth for Sun Pharma. A 54-per cent rise in formulations exports coupled with 18% growth in domestic business, will push Sun Pharma's revenues by 43% and PAT by 37%, the IDFC report says.
