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India undertook surgical strikes across the Line of Control, breaching self-imposed military discipline, destroying infrastructure as well as killing terrorists who were poised to cross the border and damage Indian cities and Jammu and Kashmir.
This is bound to invite retaliation, both from Pakistan as well as the rest of world, which will now begin scrambling to plead India to continue its policy of strategic restraint.
The Director General Military Operations (DGMO) used the hotline to contact his counterpart in Pakistan. This is scrupulous observation of protocol – that is exactly what the hotline is for.
But nevertheless, what India has done has breached a red line. It could also be construed as an act of war. This is unilateral attack – admittedly after India ascertained the nationality of the attackers and found irrefutable proof of their being Pakistanis. So the question is how Pakistan will retaliate – because retaliate, it will.
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Among the first steps could be recall of ambassadors, cancellation of all privileges – and yes, including the blocking of the Zindagi channel which belongs to the Zee network and comprises Pakistani programming – and a moratorium on all interactions with Pakistan.
The first such interaction is likely on 6 October when Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and Pakistan Finance Minister Ishaq Dar head out to attend the World Bank meeting in the US.
But before that, how will Pakistan respond? That’s what needs to be seen.
We are in a place where three scenarios are possible:
1) An unpredictable actor comes into play - a suicide bomber takes it into his head to blow himself up in a crowded place, a Paris type event - which will be the equivalent of tossing a cracker into a crowd and could have unforeseen consequences.
2) Pakistan retaliates and India hits back, gradually escalating into full scale confrontation.
3) The international community steps in and talks both Pakistan and India out of it. The UNSC holds a meeting and peacemakers step in.
The third scenario is the most likely but the first and second cannot be ruled out.
