Too early to call new Covid variant more lethal, transmissible: ICMR

Structural changes in the heavily mutated Covid variant, first detected in South Africa, need not be interpreted as lethal or highly transmissible, said the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) on Friday, a day after the government called for rigorous testing of travellers from at-risk countries.

Samiran Panda, head of the Epidemiology and Infectious diseases at ICMR, told Business Standard, “Mutations are nothing new. It is the number of changes in the receptor binding domain that has drawn so much attention... Cluster infections have not been observed yet.” 

Panda said the variant — identified as B.1.1.529 — needed to be studied more to assess clinical severity, among other things. “We need to keep an eye out,” he said, even as the news of the strain roiled global markets on Friday.

Preliminary data suggests the variant has more than 30 mutations across different parts of the virus. These mutations are in the spike protein, which is the part of the virus that binds to cells in the body.

The variant has not been detected in India yet. Panda said that it is important to keep in mind that it is not a new virus. “It is a new avatar. Variants do happen and we will be able to protect ourselves by following hand hygiene, social distancing and other such Covid appropriate behaviour.” 

Stressing that the variant should not be referred to by the name of the country since it could lead to stigma, Panda said that people should go ahead with vaccination.

On whether the new virus would be vaccine-evasive, he said that 100 per cent “immune escape” is not seen. This means that while it may vary by degree, vaccines would provide some degree of protection.

ICMR — along with Imperial College, London — has also developed a CHROM-IC simulator, which is a collective health research model to enable research into immune escape and the possibility of a third wave. “This mathematical modelling is being used by states now. It will be useful in the context of the new variant as well,” Panda said. 

India had on Thursday asked states to ensure that all international travellers travelling from and transiting through South Africa, Hong Kong, Botswana and other at-risk countries are subjected to rigorous screening and testing.

Even though much more genomic sequencing needs to be done before there are definitive answers, some experts have said that the variant seems to spread very quickly.

Tulio de Oliviera, director of Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation in South Africa, said: “In less than two weeks, (B.1.1.529) now dominates all infections following a devastating Delta wave in South Africa .”