The US seems to be more positive about India’s wheat harvest as it projects higher output at 78.6 million tonnes for 2008-09, compared with the Indian government’s estimate of 77.78 million tonnes.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which announces monthly commodity forecasts, has revised India’s wheat output slightly upward at 78.6 million tonnes in March, from 78.4 million tonnes in February.
Meanwhile, the Indian government is yet to revise its second advance estimate, which was released much before the harvest season, though officials have expressed that the output would be higher than 77.78 million tonnes. Wheat harvesting has already commenced from mid-March.
“We will be reaching the same level of production (of wheat) as last year,” Agriculture Commissioner N B Singh had said on March 20.
Major wheat growing states in India are Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
If the USDA projections come true, India will be harvesting a bumper crop for the second consecutive year. The country had produced a record 78.57 million tonnes last year, which had helped the government to procure over 22.6 million tonnes for the public distribution system.
Besides India, USDA has also marginally increased the estimates for Australia, Morocco, Mexico and Bangladesh.
According to a latest report of USDA, Australia’s wheat production is projected to be higher by 1.4 million tonnes to 21.50 million tonnes following higher harvested area and better-than-expected yields, especially in Western Australia.
The estimate for global wheat production has also been raised by 1.6 million tonnes to a record 684.4 million tonnes during marketing year 2008-09, it said. The marketing period of wheat varies from country to country.
