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India's distinctive demographic dividend

Demography affords India a unique opportunity, though it is, by no means, destiny

Figure 3
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Figure 3

Ananya KotiaArvind Subramanian
Andrew McAfee, the techno-optimist, tweeted a few days ago that the world has reached “peak children”. There will never be more of them than there are now. Encouragingly, this is not true for India, which is poised to reap the so-called demographic dividend. Using new projections of population and age structure, provided by Prof Irudaya Rajan and Dr Sunitha for this year’s Economic Survey, we present some new findings.

India’s demographic profile is distinctive: It is unique in three ways, with key implications for the growth outlook of India and the Indian states. Figure 1 compares UN projections of the ratio
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