How many years does it take to establish a trend? If you take the last six years (2011-17), the economy has grown by an estimated 6.65 per cent. If we are lucky to hit that growth figure in the current year, we have a seven-year period when growth will have been stuck noticeably below 7 per cent—the threshold beyond which an economy is generally accepted as clocking rapid growth. In other words, India is no longer a rapidly-growing economy. And that is not a transient blip, it is a seven-year trend.
Yet the implicit assumption in most forecasts even now
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