From being the 'office to the world', India is set to become its factory too

Why this is India's decade

Business Standard

Illustration by Binay Sinha

Contrary to popular discourse, non-market systems are also almost always unfair since they concentrate power and resources in a few hands

A new India

The market call in 2014 is more challenging for us than we can remember in a while. It requires us to anticipate what the US Federal Reserve will do, second-guess the Indian election results and then forecast the government's policy response. If all three go the market's way, we could be in a bull phase. However, if two of three go against the market, we could see significant downsides to the indices.Both outcomes are aptly reflected in our risk-reward scenarios for the BSE Sensex, with a bull case upside of 25 per cent and a bear case with a downside of 17 per cent.The call becomes more complicated because it is an election year and the country needs assertive policy action. Thus, the market could gyrate around election outcomes. We do not see a sustainable shift in fundamentals for us to back stocks which are, at best, trading at middling valuations.Global liquidity is strong but waning at the margin. Domestic liquidity will improve only when India's savings gap closes. The chances o

A complicated call, indeed: Ridham Desai

Indices are past their 200 daily moving average (DMA) for the first time since February 2011. Sector rotation has hit a 15-month high. Cyclicals are back and the so-called defensives have underperformed. These are tell-tale signs of a new bull market. Is this a case of the market telling us where the fundamentals are heading or is this a head fake? Simply put, are we in a new bull market?.

A new bull market?

An upcycle in earnings, strong global liquidity and supportive valuations should help the market rise around 25 per cent in 2013. We expect Sensex earnings growth of 10 per cent and 19 per cent in FY2013 and FY2014, respectively, and hence, markets to rise largely on higher earnings. Of course, there are risks to this view from a major risk-off in the world, domestic policy hiatus, early elections and rising oil prices.

Ridham Desai

Ridham Desai

Ridham Desai

Why this is India's decade

A new India

A complicated call, indeed: Ridham Desai

A new bull market?

Bull run portents in place