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Economic Survey: Street view

Business Standard 

The BSE Sensex is up 30 per cent so far this financial year and 15 per cent since July 9, 2014, when the Economic Survey 2013-14 was tabled in Parliament. Improved macroeconomic fundamentals and expectations of reform have contributed to the gains. India's economic health has stood out among its peers and other major global markets, which have helped attract a lot of capital flows. Foreign institutional investors have invested Rs 94,000 crore ($15.5 billion) into Indian stocks so far in 2014-15. Flows could taper due to tightening of interest rates in the US and drop in crude oil prices. Fortunately for the government, the Indian basket of crude oil has seen one of the sharpest declines in the past six years, falling by 43.8 per cent in 2014-15 so far, against a fall of 1.75 per cent in 2013-14. And, the rupee has curtailed its losses against the dollar, falling 3.3 per cent, against a fall of 10.3 per cent in 13-14. Most analysts are of the view that due to an excess supply in general, crude oil prices will not go up by any significant proportion from the current levels in 2015-16. Agri commodities have also remained under pressure. Multi Commodities spot agri index has fallen 7.77 per cent in 14-15 so far, against a marginal gain previous year. Monsoon will certainly be an important variable. Globally, metals prices could recover as they have fallen significantly. For gold and silver, the outlook is positive because at lower levels, demand is supporting prices. Against last year's 19.7 per cent fall in gold internationally, this year it has shaved only 7.16 per cent in value; in India the fall is 13.76 per cent. (Click here for charts & tables)

First Published: Sat, February 28 2015. 00:35 IST