Beyond good rains: The making of a 'normal monsoon'

Their timeliness, distribution and spread are of vital importance for Indian agriculture

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) soothed nerves, especially about food supplies, when it forecast a "normal" monsoon for the June-September period at 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA).

IMD’s first monsoon forecast for the year followed private weather forecasting agency Skymet’s prediction of a below-par monsoon at 94 per cent of the LPA. Both forecasts have a model error of plus and minus five per cent.

In meteorological terms, there is a world of difference between "normal" and "below normal" forecasts. Both IMD and Skymet had almost similar views on the emergence of El Nino, a weather