Longer lives, smaller families: What SRS data shows about India's future

India's population growth is slowing as now birth and death rates are half of 1971 levels, and infant mortality is at its lowest ever, govt data reveals

For the first time in five decades, India’s birth and death rates have dropped to nearly half their 1971 levels, while infant mortality has fallen to a record low, according to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Bulletin 2023 (Volume 58 No 1) released by the Office of the Registrar General of India on Wednesday.

 

The report highlights significant improvements in maternal and child health, family planning, and access to healthcare, although it also notes substantial disparities between rural and urban areas, as well as between states.

 

Here are the key health indicators from the report, showing where India’s states stand on birth rate, death rate, infant mortality, fertility trends and life expectancy.

Birth rate

India’s birth rate, which is the number of live births per 1,000 people, stood at 18.4 in 2023, down from 21.4 in 2013 and a dramatic fall from 36.9 in 1971. This decline reflects family planning adoption, rising education levels, and urbanisation.

 

Rural vs Urban: Rural India recorded a higher rate of 20.3, while urban areas saw a sharper dip to 14.9.

State variations: Bihar topped the list with the highest birth rate at 25.8, while the Andaman & Nicobar Islands had the lowest at 10.1.

Top 5 states with highest birth rates:

 

• Bihar – 25.8
• Uttar Pradesh – 23.6
• Rajasthan – 22.9
• Madhya Pradesh – 22.5
• Chhattisgarh – 22.3

Bottom 5 states with lowest birth rates:

• Andaman & Nicobar Islands – 10.1
• Kerala – 12.3
• Tamil Nadu – 12.0
• Punjab – 13.8
• Maharashtra/West Bengal – 14.0 each

Death rate

The death rate in India fell to 6.4 per 1,000 population in 2023, compared to 7.0 in 2013 and a huge decline from 14.9 in 1971. This fall points to improved healthcare access, vaccination, and disease control.

 

By gender: Nationwide, men recorded higher mortality (7.2) than women (5.7), both in rural and urban regions.

Rural vs Urban: Rural areas reported a death rate of 6.8, while urban areas fared better at 5.7.

By state: Chhattisgarh had the highest death rate at 8.3, whereas Chandigarh recorded the lowest at 4.0.

 

Top 5 states with the highest death rates:

• Chhattisgarh – 8.3
• Odisha – 7.7
• Kerala – 7.2
• Punjab – 7.3
• Andhra Pradesh/Karnataka – 6.9/6.8

Bottom 5 states with the lowest death rates:

• Chandigarh – 4.0
• Delhi – 4.5
• Manipur – 4.5
• Nagaland/Sikkim – 5.5 each
• Jammu & Kashmir – 5.6

Infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate (IMR), one of the key indicators of healthcare standards in a country, fell to 25 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2023. That’s a 37.5 per cent drop in the last decade and a massive improvement from 129 in 1971.

 

By gender: The gap is narrowing—26 for male infants and 25 for female infants.

Rural vs Urban: Rural IMR stood at 28, compared to just 18 in urban areas.

State-wise: Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh reported the highest IMR at 37, while Manipur stood out with the lowest at 3.

 

Top 5 states with the highest IMR (worst performers):

• Chhattisgarh – 37
• Madhya Pradesh – 37
• Uttar Pradesh – 37
• Meghalaya – 34
• Odisha/Assam – 30 each

Bottom 5 states with lowest IMR (best performers):

• Manipur – 3
• Kerala – 5
• Goa/Sikkim – 6 each
• Nagaland – 10
• Tamil Nadu – 12

This progress highlights stronger maternal-child health programmes, better neonatal care, and nutrition improvements. 

 

However, despite progress, the report highlights that 1 in every 40 infants still dies before turning one, underlining gaps in neonatal and maternal care. 

Fertility rate

India’s total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 1.9 in 2023, down from 2.0 in 2022 and far below the 5.2 recorded in 1971. This is below the replacement level of 2.1, meaning that each generation is no longer fully replacing itself.

 

Rural vs Urban: Rural TFR is 2.1, just at replacement, while urban TFR is much lower at 1.5.

 

Highest TFR states: 

• Bihar – 2.8
• Uttar Pradesh – 2.6
• Madhya Pradesh – 2.5
• Rajasthan – 2.3
• Chhattisgarh – 2.2

Lowest TFR states: 

• Delhi – 1.2 
• West Bengal – 1.3 
• Tamil Nadu – 1.3 
• Maharashtra – 1.4 
• Kerala/Andhra Pradesh – 1.5 each

A total of 18 states and UTs now have fertility below replacement level, meaning population growth is concentrated in northern states, while much of the south and west are stabilising or even shrinking. 

Sex ratio at birth

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) for India in 2021–23 was 917 girls per 1,000 boys.

 

Best states: 

• Chhattisgarh – 974 
• Kerala – 971
• Odisha – 961 
• Assam – 959
• West Bengal – 957

Lowest states: 

• Uttarakhand  –  868 
• Haryana  –  871
• Rajasthan  –  888 
• Gujarat  –  890
• Bihar  –  897, down sharply from 964 in 2020

This skew suggests gender bias and sex-selective practices persist in many regions despite legal restrictions.

Average life expectancy

India’s average life expectancy at birth is around 68.5 years for males and 72.5 years for females, according to the SRS based Abridged Life Tables 2019-23.

Best states for life expectancy: 

• Kerala  –  Above 78.4 years 
• Delhi  –  Around 74.2 years
• Himachal Pradesh  –  Around 74.4 years
• Jammu & Kashmir  –   Around 73.4 years

Lowest life expectancy: Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Assam, where average life spans are 5–7 years shorter than the national average.

 

Women outlive men by about 4 years, reflecting global trends, though the gap varies by region.

 

Why do rural and state disparities still matter?

 

Even though the national averages show improvement, the data reveal that:

• States like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh continue to struggle with high birth and infant mortality rates.
• Health gaps between rural and urban areas remain significant, rural India consistently records worse outcomes.
• Socio-economic, educational, and healthcare access inequalities are driving these divides.

Experts suggest region-specific interventions to sustain progress, especially in states with high fertility and infant mortality.

 

What does this mean for India’s future?

 

India’s population growth is slowing, and improvements in life expectancy, maternal safety, and infant survival point towards better living standards. However, closing the rural-urban and state gaps will be key to achieving sustainable health equity.