SIR draft roll exclusions bring electorate to 2015 level, shows data

The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a plea challenging Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar’s role in the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise. Amid the controversy, Opposition parties have also demanded restoration of the names of all 130 million electors excluded from the draft electoral rolls. 

Data shows that the exclusion of around 130 million electors from the draft rolls has reduced the size of India’s electorate across the 31 states and Union Territories (UTs) that have undergone SIR to levels comparable to those seen in 2015. Out of the 31 states and UTs, 21 have seen growth in their respective electorates, while ten have seen declines. 

The electorate in these 31 states and UTs stood at 766 million in 2014, and rose to 928 million in 2024. It increased further to 952 million in the pre-SIR period, before falling to 817.9 million after the SIR draft deletions — only slightly above the 816.9 million electors recorded in 2015, a decade earlier. 

Regardless of whether states recorded an increase or a decline in their electorate between the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the pre-SIR period, many have reported higher exclusions in the post-SIR draft electoral rolls. Among the 10 states and UTs that recorded the highest growth in electorate size and the ten that witnessed declines, seven in each group registered draft electoral roll exclusion rates of more than 10 per cent. 

Among the 10 states and UTs that recorded the highest growth, Maharashtra saw its electorate increase by 5.6 per cent, yet 21 per cent of its electors were excluded from the draft rolls. Gujarat registered a 5.5 per cent increase in its electorate, but its draft exclusion rate stood at 14 per cent. Similarly, Tamil Nadu recorded a 2.6 per cent rise in its electorate, while 15 per cent of its electors were excluded. 

 

A similar pattern is visible among the ten states and UTs that experienced declines. Chandigarh recorded the steepest fall, with its electorate shrinking by 27 per cent, while 40 per cent of its electors were excluded from the draft rolls. Nagaland's electorate declined by 9.6 per cent, yet its draft exclusion rate stood at 11.7 per cent. In Uttarakhand, the electorate fell by 5.7 per cent, while 10.4 per cent of electors were excluded. 

Data also shows that post-SIR draft deletions, among larger states, Maharashtra saw a 1.4 per cent fall in electors from 2014, while Tamil Nadu recorded a 1 per cent increase and Gujarat witnessed a rise of around 9 per cent over the same period. Among UTs, Chandigarh recorded an 11 per cent decline, while Uttarakhand saw a 4.9 per cent increase, and Delhi registered a fall of around 16 per cent in electors between 2014 and post-SIR draft deletions. 

So far, only 17 out of the 31 states and UTs that released their draft electoral rolls have published their final ones.

The pre-SIR period refers to the point in time before the SIR was conducted in a state or a UT. Accordingly, the pre-SIR reference date varies by phase: for the Phase-I state, which is Bihar, it is June 2025; for Phase-II states, it is October 2025; and for Phase-III states, it is May 2026. 

Data shows that 21 states and UTs recorded a growth in their electorate between the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the pre-SIR period, with rise ranging from 0.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent. While there was this growth, draft electoral roll exclusions in these states and UTs ranged from 5 per cent to as high as 21 per cent.

 

Since the conclusion of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, nine states and UTs, including Assam, have held assembly polls. Barring Assam, where the SIR process has not yet started, all other states and UTs have already seen the exercise. In three of these states and UTs, the proportion of electors excluded from the draft rolls exceeded the share of eligible voters who did not participate in the most recent assembly elections. 

For instance, in Tamil Nadu, 15 per cent of electors were excluded from the draft rolls, compared with 14 per cent who did not vote in the last assembly election. Similarly, in Puducherry, 10 per cent of electors were excluded from the draft rolls, while voter non-participation stood at 8.8 per cent. In West Bengal, 7.6 per cent of electors were excluded from the draft rolls, exceeding the 6.3 per cent of eligible voters who did not participate in the most recent assembly election. 

The same pattern could emerge in states headed for assembly elections, with draft electoral roll exclusions already running high in several cases. Uttar Pradesh has recorded an exclusion rate of 18.6 per cent, followed by Uttarakhand at 10.4 per cent, and Punjab at 9.6 per cent, raising the possibility that these states could witness trends similar to those observed in other states and UTs as well.