Vijay's rising star vs the rising sun in run-up to Tamil Nadu polls

Tamil cinema has entertained audiences for decades with flashy music, grand frames, high-octane action, and larger-than-life heroes. Moreover, unlike most parts of India, cinema and politics in the state are deeply intertwined — often making the real world echo  the reel world. 

As the state gears up for Assembly elections in the coming months, campaign topics have already spilled beyond traditional politics — stretching from controversies over the release of Vijay’s “last” film Jana Nayagan, the Thirupparankundram temple-dargah dispute, concerns over rising debt, and even geopolitical issues such as the tariffs imposed by the United States. 

Traditionally, state politics used to revolve around two Dravidian parties — the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which leads the INDIA bloc in the state, and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the main partner in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). 

However, for the first time in years, the two Dravidian powers are facing opposition from a largely untested political startup: The Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-turned-politician Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar (popularly known as ‘Thalapathy’ Vijay), and launched in October 2024. 

TVK’s rallies are gaining considerable traction, with multiple surveys indicating that the party may get anywhere close to or above 20 per cent of the vote share, eating into all other political parties. This signifies that there was negligible impact on Vijay’s popularity following the Karur stampede that had resulted in the loss of 41 lives. 

The Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), led by Seeman, also seems to be making inroads in certain strongholds. This is the reason why the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is inviting the anti-DMK forces to join together. “We are expecting others opposing the DMK to come into the NDA… That is the need of the hour,” TN BJP’s chief spokesperson Narayanan Thirupathy told

Business Standard. 

When asked about this, TVK leader Felix Gerald echoed his party supremo's stand of maintaining equidistance from both the DMK and the BJP. “We identify the DMK as our primary political adversary and the BJP as our fundamental ideological enemy. To the voters of Tamil Nadu, we present the sobering reality of a DMK that has systematically abandoned its foundational pillars of social justice, secularism, and welfare politics, transforming instead into a long-standing epicentre for institutional corruption over the last three decades. Simultaneously, we warn against the imminent threat posed by the BJP’s sectarian politics, which seeks to undermine the deep-rooted religious harmony and diversity of our land," he said. 

A game of statistics 

A section of political analysts believe that uprooting the DMK may not be an easy task, as TVK might mainly eat into the anti-DMK votes. In the 2021 Assembly polls, the DMK-led alliance won 159 seats with a 45.38 per cent vote share, the NDA had 39.71 per cent, and NTK another 7 per cent. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the INDIA bloc further improved it to 47 per cent, while the AIADMK and its allies secured 23 per cent. The NDA, which contested separately, had its best-ever show of 18 per cent, and NTK too improved its share to 8 per cent. 

AIADMK general secretary Edappadi Palaniswami has been lining up allegations that the DMK has been looting the state by borrowing nearly ₹1 trillion every year and increasing debt burden by over ₹4 trillion in the past 56 months. The AIADMK on Saturday announced poll promises like ₹2,000 monthly assistance to all ration-card holding families, free travel for men and women in town buses, and increasing the number of working days under rural employment scheme from 125 to 150 days. 

Meanwhile, TN Chief Minister M K Stalin has shown confidence that DMK would win more than 200 seats if party cadre can successfully explain the government’s social sector schemes to the voters. The party is also lining up its allegations against the NDA, blaming the BJP for not solving the US tariff issue — according to DMK statements, the tariffs have led to a loss of over ₹15,000 crore to exporters at the knitwear hub Tiruppur, while affecting over 500,000 jobs and 3,000 textile units. 

Congress too is not out of action in the alliance arithmetic. A section of Congress leaders, including party functionary Praveen Chakravarthy, Lok Sabha MP Manickam Tagore, and a few senior state-level leaders, have openly raised their demand for power sharing and more seats. This came after TVK's announcement that its alliance partners would be given a role in power.  Though the DMK-Congress alliance has largely remained intact since 2004, the TVK offer seems to have created cracks, as the party cadre has been out of power positions in the state for the last 58 years. 

Further, the roadblocks put in the way of the release of Vijay’s final film, Jana Nayagan, have led to outrage among his fans. The TVK is blaming both the DMK and BJP for the postponement. Rahul Gandhi, Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, also supported Vijay during the controversy. The movie’s release is expected by the end of January. 

The controversy over the Karthikai Deepam festival at Thiruparankundram is also being taken up by the Opposition. Though a court order permitted a lamp to be lit at a specific pillar, the ‘Deepathun’, for the first time in decades, this decision was met with resistance from the state administration, citing potential law and order issues. Last week, the Madurai Bench of the Madras High Court warned that contempt charges would be framed against government officials unless they show “proper cause” for failing to implement its earlier orders. 

According to a survey by the Indian Political Democratic Strategies, a Chennai-based political research firm, Stalin is poised to return to power. However, Vijay is the second-most preferred CM candidate, followed by Palaniswami. 

With the political drama already kicking off, one thing is clear: A lot about the outcome of the 2026 polls will depend on how many votes Vijay's star power can garner.