2026 monsoon ends with nearly 13% rain deficit, worst since 2015: IMD

IMD forecast says October rainfall is also likely to stay below normal, while El Niño is set to peak in November

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday said the southwest monsoon ended the 2026 season with all-India cumulative rainfall at 87 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), the lowest since 2015. 

This was the fourth-lowest rainfall since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901, under the impact of El Niño. 

Cumulative rainfall between June and September was around 759.4 millimetres, against the normal of about 868.6 mm, a shortfall of around 12.6 per cent. 

The southern and eastern parts of the country were the worst hit by El Niño, with seasonal rainfall at 76 per cent and 74 per cent of the LPA, respectively, a deficit of around 24 per cent and 26 per cent from normal. 

 

East and Northeast India received 1,016.3 mm of rainfall during the season, the lowest since 1901, while the South Peninsula received 542.0 mm, the fourth lowest since 1901 and the second lowest since 2001. 

LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a specific region for a given period, such as a month or the entire season, averaged over a period of 30 to 50 years.

 

“The impact of El Niño was greater in the southern and eastern parts of the country, although some parts of eastern India, such as Odisha, were not as impacted because low-pressure systems (LPS) kept developing there,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told reporters.

 

The below-normal rains did not have much impact on kharif crop sowing, barring crops such as paddy, cotton and maize. However, prolonged dry spells, particularly in states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka, have raised concerns over final yields.

 

Water levels in reservoirs in southern India were also significantly lower, at 50 per cent of their live storage capacity as of September 24, while nationally, they stood at 79 per cent.

 

Data showed that, as of September 25, kharif crops had been sown across around 110.7 million hectares, just 1.2 per cent less than the area covered during the same period last year.

 

On Tuesday, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said states such as Karnataka, Maharashtra, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan were the worst affected agriculturally by the below-normal rains.

 

The IMD said southwest monsoon rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which comprises most of the country’s rain-fed agricultural regions, was at 94 per cent of the LPA. The region consists mostly of areas where pulses and oilseeds are grown.

 

Between June and September, 18 of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, covering 53 per cent of the country’s geographical area, received normal rainfall, while 17 subdivisions, covering 42 per cent of the area, recorded deficient rainfall. 

 

The remaining subdivision, Odisha, covering 5 per cent of the country’s total area, received excess rainfall during the season.

 

Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole was 65 per cent of the LPA in June, 101 per cent in July, 84 per cent in August and 92 per cent in September.

 

“The southwest monsoon advanced over the South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands on May 16, nearly six days ahead of the normal schedule. It arrived in Kerala on June 4, three days later than the climatological normal onset date of June 1, and covered the entire country by July 9, close to the normal date of July 8. The monsoon withdrawal began from west Rajasthan on September 19, delayed by two days,” Mohapatra said.

 

He said there were 14 low-pressure systems during the season, including six monsoon depressions, of which three intensified into deep depressions. There were 77 low-pressure system days, against the normal 57 days.

 

On forecast accuracy, the IMD said the error between its 2026 forecast and actual rainfall was 2.6 per cent, a significant improvement over the average error margin of 7.5 per cent between 2016 and 2021.

 

“The seasonal forecast issued by IMD for the southwest monsoon season 2026 rainfall was accurate and within the forecast error limit, while the forecasts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole conditions were broadly consistent with their observed evolution. However, the forecast of monsoon onset over Kerala was eight days early compared to the actual date of onset,” the IMD said.

 

Meanwhile, the IMD said rainfall over the country as a whole in October is likely to be below normal, at less than 85 per cent of the LPA.

 

“Most parts of the country are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during October-December, except some areas of Northwest India and southern parts of peninsular India, where rainfall is likely to be normal to above normal,” Mohapatra said.

 

He said El Niño is expected to peak in November and then gradually weaken from March onwards.