Passenger vehicle (PV) sales grew 23-26 per cent, two-wheelers (2Ws) 14-19 per cent, and commercial vehicles (CVs) rose 14-19 per cent across brokerage industry-volume estimates and Vahan retail registrations. PVs benefited from SUVs, premium models, new launches, and recovering small-car demand, while scooters outpaced motorcycles and electric two-wheeler (e2W) adoption accelerated. CV gained from replacement demand, infrastructure, mining, and e-commerce activity, although higher diesel prices and geopolitical disruption weighed on fleet utilisation. Tractor demand remained healthy, supported by rural conditions and reservoir levels.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) growth is expected to trail revenue growth as higher steel, aluminium, copper, rubber, crude-linked inputs, and freight costs squeeze margins. Nuvama forecasts aggregate Ebitda growth of 10 per cent against revenue growth of 22 per cent, while profit after tax (PAT) growth is expected to be uneven and generally slower than the top line.
West Asia tensions raised export costs and execution risks, rather than materially weakening overall export demand during the quarter.
Among PV makers, Tata Motors’ strong domestic business is expected to be offset by weakness at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). Nuvama forecasts Tata’s India PV revenue to rise 56 per cent but JLR revenue to decline 9 per cent in pound terms, limiting consolidated revenue growth to about 8 per cent; Elara and HDFC Securities estimate around 5 per cent growth. Supply constraints, commodity inflation, and lower operating leverage are expected to compress JLR’s margins, with HDFC Securities forecasting an Ebit margin of 2.3 per cent. Consolidated PAT could fall 27-80 per cent across estimates.
Mahindra & Mahindra’s revenue is forecast to rise 21-26 per cent on SUV, electric vehicle (EV), export and tractor growth, but margins could contract 30-170 bps due to commodity inflation and a higher EV mix. PAT forecasts range from flat to 17 per cent growth.
Maruti Suzuki is expected to lead large PV makers with revenue growth of 35-38 per cent, supported by domestic volumes, exports, small cars, and currency gains. However, Nuvama, PL Capital, and HDFC Securities forecast an 8-11 per cent PAT decline, while Elara expects a 32 per cent fall.
Hyundai Motor India is expected to be the weakest PV performer, with flat to 2 per cent lower revenue, margin contraction of about 400 bps and a 38-40 per cent PAT decline.
Two-wheeler makers are expected to fare better. Bajaj Auto’s revenue is forecast to grow 30-36 per cent and PAT 25-34 per cent, aided by exports, 125cc-plus motorcycles, and improving EV profitability. TVS Motor could report revenue growth of 31-37 per cent and PAT growth of 23-35 per cent on strong scooter, motorcycle, EV, and export sales. Bajaj’s margins are expected to remain broadly flat or expand by up to 60 bps, while TVS Motor and Eicher Motors could see stable to moderately lower margins. Hero MotoCorp’s revenue may grow 28-30 per cent, but PAT growth could be limited to 8-20 per cent as input costs, promotions, and EV investments compress margins.
HDFC Securities expects Ather Energy’s revenue to rise about 90 per cent, although it is likely to remain loss-making.
In CVs, Tata Motors’ revenue is forecast to rise 19-22 per cent, but broadly flat Ebitda and margin contraction of 200-235 bps could result in a 7-13 per cent PAT decline. Ashok Leyland is also expected to report double-digit revenue growth, though most brokerages anticipate margin pressure.
Auto-ancillary revenue is forecast to grow 17-21 per cent. Choice Institutional Equities (CIE) estimates revenue, Ebitda and PAT growth of 21.2 per cent, 16.2 per cent and 21.8 per cent, respectively. Sona BLW, ASK Automotive, Motherson Wiring, and Minda Corporation are expected to outperform, while Apollo Tyres, CEAT, and Balkrishna Industries face the sharpest commodity-led profitability pressure.
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