India-EU free trade pact: iPhone shift hits India's EU electronics exports

But $50 billion export aim holds as EU smartphone shipments drop after Apple's US pivot

Electronics — in which smartphones accounted for over 60 per cent of total value — was the third-largest commodity exported from India to the European Union (EU), reaching $11.79 billion in 2024-25, a 37 per cent increase over the previous year. The only commodities ahead were engineering goods and petroleum products. 

Apple Inc, leveraging zero-duty imports to the EU — similar to the US — was one of the key players, shipping iPhones assembled in India to Europe, largely to the Netherlands, from where they were distributed across the region. However, the equation has changed dramatically. 

Between April and November of 2025–26 (FY26), Apple shifted a large part of its iPhone shipments from India to the US, reducing both the value and volume of exports to the EU. As a result, iPhone exports to the US rose threefold in April–November of FY26 to over $12.7 billion. 

Despite the fall in smartphone exports, electronics companies are pursuing an ambitious plan to boost exports to the EU. 

Says Pankaj Mohindroo, president of the Indian Cellular & Electronics Association (ICEA), “The agreement aligns directly with India’s shift from scale-led domestic manufacturing to export-oriented integration with global value chains.” Mohindroo adds that ICEA has drafted a blueprint to build the electronics trade to over $50 billion by 2030–31 (FY31), up from the current level across electronics sectors, including mobile phones, consumer electronics, and info­r­mation technology hardware. He ex­p­ects this figure could potentially double to $100 billion in the following decade, anchored in manufacturing depth, job creation, innovation, and India’s emergence as a trusted global supplier. 

Experts point out that India aims for an electronics production value of $500 billion by FY31, including $180–200 billion from exports. 

With India’s electronics exports currently at $38 billion, exports would need to increase nearly fivefold. Experts say there is a big opportunity for Indian companies to expand in Europe, which imports about $400 billion worth of electronics annually. In the US, electronics imports reached about $500 billion.