India's Russian crude oil buys may average 1.2 mbpd amid sanctions: Kpler

India is diversifying its crude slate by stepping up purchases from traditional suppliers such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia

The slew of sanctions imposed on Russian oil entities and the prospect of a trade agreement between India and the US could result in New Delhi’s purchase of crude oil to plummet to 1.2-1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) from Moscow in the near-term, according to fresh data sourced from maritime intelligence firm Kpler.

 

India’s Russian crude imports averaged 1.18 million bpd in the first half of January, and are expected to remain capped at around 1.4 million bpd, as against the average import of 1.7 million bpd in 2025, the data showed.

 

“This has been reinforced by export-oriented refiners stepping back, ahead of EU sanctions coming into effect from January 21, while expectations around broader India-US trade engagement are also encouraging a more cautious stance at the margin,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst for refining and modelling at the firm.

 

Indian refiners have grown cautious of buying Russian oil, despite discounts as high as $5-8 per barrel, for avoiding violation of US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions and European Union (EU) curbs.

 

US President Donald Trump had imposed sanctions, from November 21, on two major Russian oil producers — Rosneft and Lukoil — which together account for about 60 per cent of India’s oil imports from Moscow. In parallel, under the EU's 18th sanctions package, the bloc banned imports of refined oil products derived from Russian crude.

 

Mukesh Ambani-backed Reliance Industries (RIL), India’s largest buyer of Russian oil, slashed purchases of crude oil from the country by almost 50 per cent in December, said European think tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). State-run refiners, including Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum have also scaled back purchases from Russia.

 

India’s crude oil imports from Russia hit a three-year low in December, as purchases declined to 1.14 million bpd in the month.

 

“The decline in December appears to be driven by a sanctions-linked and compliance-linked reset, and the pause or reduction by major buyers, with RIL pausing Russian intake, MRPL largely pausing since November, HMEL taking only one cargo in December with none expected in January, and HPCL not lifting any cargoes in December and the first half of January. This highlights growing friction in placing Russian barrels cleanly across India’s mainstream buyer base,” said Ritolia.

 

Meanwhile, India is actively diversifying its crude slate by increasing purchases from traditional suppliers such as Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, while also sourcing oil from new geographies like Guyana.

 

India imported about 954,000 bpd of crude from Saudi Arabia in the first half of January, up from 699,000 bpd in December 2025. Imports from Iraq, and the US stood at 1.07 million bpd and 349,000 bpd, respectively, while shipments from Nigeria, Angola and Kuwait have also risen so far this month.