HDFC Bank market-cap hits ₹15 trn; stock up 12% in 6 days. Buy or sell?

HDFC Bank's market capitalisation touched the ₹15-trillion mark for the first-time ever in Tuesday's intra-day trade as stock price of the largest private sector lender hit a new high on the BSE

HDFC Bank stock price today: Shares of HDFC Bank touched a record high of ₹1,970.65 gaining 2.2 per cent on the BSE in intra-day trade. The stock was trading higher for the sixth straight session, and has surged 12 per cent during this period, as the HDFC Bank reported a good set of earnings for the quarter ended March 2025 (Q4FY25).

 

At 10:41 am, with ₹15.04 trillion market cap, HDFC Bank was trading 2 per cent higher at ₹1,967.85 on the BSE. In comparison, the BSE Sensex was up 0.42 per cent at 79,746.

 

HDFC Bank Q4FY25 result update

 

 

HDFC Bank continued to deliver steady revival in earnings in Q4FY25, with standalone net advances growth at 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and 4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to ₹26.2 trillion, driven by retail and CRB segment.

 

Net interest income (NII) grew 10.3 per cent Y-o-Y, led by 11 bps Q-o-Q improvement in margins at 3.54 per cent. The lender reported improvement in asset quality as gross non-performing assets (NPAs) ratio at the end of Q4FY25 dropped 9 basis points over Q3FY25 to 1.33 per cent. Net NPAs stood at 0.43 per cent, down 3 bps Q-o-Q. 

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HDFC Bank stock technical analysis 

 

HDFC Bank is likely to trade with a positive bias in the near-term as long as the stock trades above ₹ 1,800 levels; below which support for the stock exists around the 50-day Daily Moving Average (50-DMA) at ₹ 1,750 levels. READ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS HERE  

Brokerage views on HDFC Bank: ICICI Securities

 

Credit growth outlook remains encouraging, supported by a calibrated shift in funding cost and mix. Margins are expected to stay within a broad range, despite near-term volatility owing to repo-linked resets. Though fundamentals remain healthy, recent run-up in valuation limits upside in near term, ICICI Securities said in a note.

 

Management expects current improvement in systemic liquidity to aid deposit growth. However, pace of decline in credit deposit (CD) ratio will moderate going ahead as loan growth picks up pace and returns to pre-merger levels of ~85-90 per cent only by FY27.

 

JM Financial on HDFC Bank stock price

 

As the rate cut cycle plays out, analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities expect margins to remain under pressure in the near term due to lag in repricing of deposits. 

 

The brokerage firm believes reduction in share of borrowings, revival of growth trends and stable asset quality should help the bank maintain its ROA profile going ahead.

 

Pickup in loan growth while reducing CD ratio gradually and maintaining NIM will drive the valuation trajectory of HDFC Bank.

 

Amongst positives, solid asset quality, diversified asset mix should see the bank reporting reasonable RoA/ROE of ~1.7 per cent/14 per cent in FY26-27E.

 

About HDFC Bank

 

HDFC Bank is a leading private sector bank with consistent growth and operational performance over various cycles. Post merger, the bank has become the second largest in terms of size with a diversified portfolio. The bank has maintained superior return ratios resulting in premium valuations.