HDFC Bank Q3 results preview: India’s biggest private bank, HDFC Bank, is set to report its December quarter (Q3) results on Wednesday, January 22, 2025. Key brokerages assessed by Business Standard, however, expect HDFC Bank to report a subdued quarter with net profit growth coming flat to negative for Q3FY25.
According to six brokerages studied for HDFC Bank Q3 results estimates, including Citi India, and Nomura, analysts estimate HDFC Bank’s Q3 profit growth to come in the range of -3 per cent to 2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). On a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, the profit may fall up to 6 per cent.
That apart, given the muted loan growth revealed during the Q3 business update, analysts expect HDFC Bank’s net interest margin (NIM) to decline in Q3FY25.
Meanwhile, in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal (Q3FY24), HDFC Bank reported a net profit of Rs 16,373 crore with a NIM of 3.7 per cent. Its net interest income (NII) stood at Rs 28,471 crore. ALSO READ: HUL Q3 preview: Analysts see muted quarter; PAT may rise 2% YoY, revenue 1%
Sequentially, profit was Rs 16,821 crore in Q2FY25, with NIM at 3.59 per cent and NII at Rs 30,114 crore.
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Here is a lowdown of HDFC Bank Q3 results 2025 expectations:
Nomura
Global brokerage Nomura expects HDFC Bank Q3 profit to come at Rs 16,620 crore, up 2 per cent year-on-year, but down 1 per cent Q-o-Q, on the back of tepid loan growth in the quarter.
Given a 1-per cent Q-o-Q and 3-per cent Y-o-Y rise in loan book, at Rs 2.52 trillion, and 3-per cent Q-o-Q and 16-per cent Y-o-Y growth in deposit book, at Rs 2.56 trillion, Nomura estimates HDFC Bank’s Q3 net interest income at Rs 30,540 crore. This would mean an increase of 1 per cent Q-o-Q and 7 per cent Y-o-Y.
“We expect NIM to moderate due to decline in credit-deposit (CD0 ratio, weak CASA, and higher growth in corporate loans. Credit cost may remain contained at ~0.5 per cent, up 2bps Q-o-Q,” it said.
NIM is pegged at 3.4 per cent, down 4 basis points (bps) sequentially, but up2 bps over the previous year. Also Read: Dr Reddy's Labs Q3 Preview: Revlimid to dent US sales, profits may rise 12%
Citi Research
Estimating a weak financial performance, analysts at Citi Research believe HDFC Bank’s Q3FY25 profit could come at Rs 15,872.7 crore, clocking a drop of 3 per cent Y-o-Y and 6 per cent Q-o-Q.
NII, too, it anticipates may rise just 1 per cent sequentially and 7 per cent on year to Rs 30,496.9 crore.
Including Other Income of Rs 11,597 crore (up 4 per cent Y-o-Y/1 per cent Q-o-Q), Opex of Rs 17,930.9 crore (up 12 per cent Y-o-Y/6 per cent Q-o-Q), Operating profit is estimated at Rs 24,163 crore (up 2 per cent Y-o-Y/down 2 per cent Q-o-Q).
Operating profit was Rs 23,647.3 crore in Q3FY24 and Rs 24,705.7 crore in Q2FY25.
Provisions, as per Citi Research, may decline 22 per cent Y-o-Y but surge 21 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 3,277.9 crore in the quarter.
“HDFC Bank’s focus is on incremental spreads, change in portfolio mix (towards retail) and borrowings refinancing acts as gradual NIM improvement levers. We expect broadly stable NIMs Q-o-Q (at 3.63 per cent vs 3.65 per cent Q-o-Q) with some downward bias. Gross slippages in Q3 could inch-up given the seasonal stress in agri book. We estimate credit cost to normalise gradually (with ~50bps in Q3). We expect opex to assets to be stable Q-o-Q and expect return on asset (RoA) of 1.7 per cent,” Citi said.
RoA estimate is lower by 19bps Y-o-Y and 15bps Q-o-Q. RoE, meanwhile, is seen dropping 236bps Y-o-Y and 112bps Q-o-Q to 13.5 per cent in Q3FY25.
Asset quality wise, gross NPA ratio is seen inching up 16 bps Y-o-Y and 6bps Q-o-Q to around 1.4 per cent. NNPA, too, may rise 12 bps Y-o-Y and 2bps Q-o-Q to 0.4 per cent.
Mirae Asset Sharekhan
This brokerage, too, see HDFC Bank’s Q3FY25 net profit falling around 1 per cent on year and 3.3 per cent sequentially to Rs 16,264 crore. Operating profit is also estimated to fall 2.3 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 24,135 crore, while NII is expected to increase 2 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 30,727 crore. ALSO READ: UltraTech Q3 Preview: Analysts eye QoQ rise in sales, profit on rising vol
“Asset quality is expected to remain broadly stable, while NIMs are expected to be flat Q-o-Q. Key monitorable would-be progress of NIMs, and loan/deposit growth outlook,” the brokerage said.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services
In-line with peers, Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects a tepid growth of 1.7 per cent Y-o-Y in HDFC Bank’s net profit. It estimates Q3 PAT at Rs 16,640 crore.
The growth would be weighed by muted NII increase of 6.5 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 30,340 crore, and increase in opex to Rs 17,290 crore from Rs 15,960 crore Y-o-Y.
The brokerage said it expects cost ratios to remain under control with margins broadly stable. Asset quality is likely to remain broadly stable, with guidance for credit growth among key monitorables.
Prabhudas Lilladher
Amid a 7 per cent year-on-year increase in NII (Rs 30,584.9 crore), and 3.8 per cent rise in pre-provision operating profit (Rs 24,556.3 crore), the brokerage anticipates a net profit contraction of 1.7 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 16,097.3 crore. On a sequential basis, this would be a 4.3 per cent fall in profit.
Given a soft loan growth of 3 per cent Y-o-Y, with an aim to improve LDR, HDFC Bank’s NIM may stay flat Q-o-Q and fall 14bps Y-o-Y, Prabhudas Lilladher said.
It expects GNPA ratio to inch up to 1.43 per cent in Q3FY25, compared with 1.36 per cent Q-o-Q.
“PPoP could decrease by 0.6 per cent Q-o-Q due to higher opex and lower other income. Provisions, meanwhile, could increase by 25 per cent sequentially due to ageing, increased slippages, and prudent accounting practices,” the brokerage said.