Q4 Preview: Will Paytm net loss narrow in Q4FY25? Check key expectations

Paytm's UPI incentive and Ebitda guidance will be monitored closely by analysts during Q4 2025 results

Paytm Q4 results 2025 date: One 97 Communications, parent company of Paytm, is scheduled to announce its Q4FY25 results on Tuesday, May 6, 2025. 

Paytm Q4FY25: Profit expectations

  Brokerages tracked by Business Standard forecast Paytm's adjusted net loss to narrow, on average, to ₹72.5 crore in the fourth quarter (Q4FY25) ended March 31, 2025, as compared to a loss of ₹551 crore a year ago. In Q3FY25, the net loss stood at ₹208.4 crore. 

Paytm Q4FY25: Revenue expectations

  Analysts project revenue to decrease by 7.8 per cent in Q4FY25, on average, to ₹2,091.16 crore as compared to ₹2,268 crore a year ago. However, on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, revenue is expected to grow 14.4 per cent, up from ₹1,828 crore in Q3FY25. 

Paytm Q4FY25: Key monitorables  

  Analysts and investors will look forward to the company's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) incentive and Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) guidance.  ALSO READ | Bank of Baroda Q4 results 2025: Know date, time, key expectations, dividend 

Here's how will Paytm fare in Q4FY25: Earnings expectations

  Motilal Oswal: The brokerage anticipates Paytm's disbursements and gross merchandise value (GMV) to increase sequentially in Q4.  Motilal Oswal estimates Paytm's GMV at ₹510 crore for Q4 as compared to ₹500 crore in Q3FY25, while disbursement for Q4 are seen at ₹7,700 crore as compared to ₹5,580 crore crore in the previous quarter.  Further, analysts at the brokerage expect total revenue growth to improve to ₹2,100 crore Q-o-Q from ₹1,8328 crore in Q3FY25.  YES Securities Institutional Equities: Analysts at YES Securities peg growth in Payments Services Revenue at 6 per cent Q-o-Q and at 30 per cent Q-o-Q for Financial Services and others. They anticipate an overall growth in revenue from operations of 20 per cent Q-o-Q, after factoring in UPI incentive.  The revenue from operations is expected at ₹2,198.9 crore as compared to ₹1,828 crore in Q3FY25.  They reckon Payment Processing Charges (PPC), as a proportion of Payments Revenue, to be at 51 per cent, down from 56.9 per cent in Q3FY25 largely due to UPI incentive in Q4FY25.  ALSO READ | M&M Q4 preview: Analysts eye double digit growth in PAT, revenue; details  JM Financial Institutional Securities: The revenue (including ₹100-crore UPI incentive) is expected to grow around 8 per cent Q-o-Q.  The revenue for the quarter under review is estimated at ₹1,974.6 crore as compared to ₹1,828 crore in Q3.  Further, the contribution margin is expected to expand by 370 basis points (bps) Q-o-Q due to the increasing share of financial services in the mix (via higher take-rates from the DLG model in merchant loans). Better operating leverage due to lower employee cost will lead Paytm to turn adjusted Ebitda positive in Q4 with an adjusted Ebitda margin of 6.1 per cent as compared to 4.5 per cent a year ago.    Adjusted Ebitda for Q4 is forecasted at ₹121.3 crore as compared to ₹1,02 crore a year ago.

 

 

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