Predictions on inflation are likely to be closely watched in the com-ing months. The Reserve Bank of India held on to its 5.4 per cent inflation projection for the current financial year on Friday, even as the World Bank increased its forecast from 5.2 per cent to 5.9 per cent earlier in the week, while projecting a declining trend in the subsequent period (chart 1).
Lower sowing and higher food prices have increased risks to inflation outcomes, along with energy prices. India’s August food inflation was higher than the median value for low-income, upper-middle-income, and high-income-countries (chart 2),

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