Tariff on Russian Oil: RIL, HPCL, BPCL, IOC can dip up to 18%, say charts

The Nifty Oil & Gas index is seen testing the 200-DMA support on charts; break below the same could weigh on the sentiment at Reliance, ONGC and Oil marketing companies counters.

Shares of oil-related companies were in focus on Thursday amid reports of likely US sanctions on Russian oil. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had indicated there would be potential sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine this week.  Crude Oil prices were trading at five-week lows as markets awaited the US sanctions decision on Russia. That apart, tariffs on India and Opec+ supply plans also weigh on the sentiment.  The US has imposed an additional 25 per cent (total 50 per cent) tariff on Indian goods, in its bid to deter India from buying Russian oil. According to Reuters report, Indian refiners are awaiting government directions on whether to continue buying Russian oil. READ MORE  Meanwhile on Thursday, on the bourses, the Nifty Oil & Gas index was down 0.8 per cent at 10,930 levels. BPCL, Gujarat Gas and HPCL were the top losers, down around 1.5 per cent each. Index heavyweights Reliance Industries and ONGC were down close to a per cent each.  Technical chart shows that the Nifty Oil & Gas index is trading near its key long-term moving average. Charts suggest up to 18 per cent downside risk of Reliance, ONGC and shares of oil marketing companies. 

Nifty Oil & Gas

Current Level: 10,930  Likely Target: 10,200  Downside Risk: 6.7%  Support: 10,750  Resistance: 11,215; 11,420  The Nifty Oil & Gas index is seen testing support around its 200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA), which stands at 10,962. The index has shed 9.4 per cent from its high of 12,099.55 hit on July 8, 2025. 

 

  At present levels, other than testing the 200-DMA support, the index is seen quoting below other key moving averages such as the 20-, 50- and 100-DMAs. The daily chart suggests that the near-term bias is likely to remain tepid as long as the index quotes below 11,420 levels. Immediate resistance can be anticipated around the 100-DMA at 11,215 levels.  On the downside, the Nifty Oil & Gas index seems headed towards its crucial medium-term support at 10,750 levels. Break and sustained traded below the same can trigger a slide towards 10,200 levels - this implies a downside risk of up to .. per cent from present levels. 

Reliance Industries

Current Price: ₹1,385  Likely Target: ₹1,195  Downside Risk: 13.7%  Support: ₹1,347; ₹1,325; ₹1,250  Resistance: ₹1,420; ₹1,470  Reliance stock is seen testing support around its 100-DMA, which stands at ₹1,391, for the last two weeks. Break and sustained trade below the same, can pull down the stock towards the 200-DMA at ₹1,325 levels, shows the daily chart. 

    Having said that, the medium-term trend for Reliance is likely to remain cautiously optimistic as long as the stock manages to sustain above ₹1,347 on a weekly closing basis. A downside breakout can trigger a fall towards ₹1,250 to ₹1,195 levels.  Whereas, in case, Reliance manages to sustain above ₹1,347 levels; the stock can bounce back to ₹1,470 levels. Above which, the overall bias at the counter shall turn favourable. Near resistance for the stock exists at ₹1,420. 

ONGC

Current Price: ₹233  Likely Target: ₹191  Downside Risk: 18%  Support: ₹229; ₹207  Resistance: ₹238; ₹244  ONGC has been trading along the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart. The bias at the counter is likely to remain negative as long as the stock trades below ₹244 levels, with near resistance likely around ₹238. 

 

  On the downside, ONGC has near support at ₹229 levels; break and sustained trade below the same can drag the stock towards ₹207 levels; below which a dip to ₹191 levels cannot be ruled out. 

BPCL

Current Price: ₹312  Likely Target: ₹290  Downside Risk: 7%  Support: ₹307; ₹297  Resistance: ₹322; ₹328; ₹336  BPCL stock is seen headed towards the 100-DMA support, which stands at ₹307, and coincides with the 20-Week Moving Average (20-WMA). Break and sustained trade below the same will see the stock extend the fall towards ₹290 levels, wherein stands the 200-DMA. 

 

  Intermediate support for the stock can be expected around ₹297. Bias for BPCL is likely to remain negative as long as the stock trades below ₹336; with interim resistance seen at ₹322 and ₹328 levels. 

HPCL

Current Price: ₹397  Likely Target: ₹363  Downside Risk: 8.6%  Support: ₹384  Resistance: ₹418; ₹424; ₹435  HPCL stock is seen trading around its 100-DMA, which stands at ₹400 levels. The next major support for the stock could be the 200-DMA at ₹384 levels; below which the stock may slip to ₹363 levels. 

 

  On the upside, the stock is expected to face resistance around the short-term moving averages around ₹418 and 424 level; with overall bias likely to be tepid below ₹435. 

IOC

Current Price: ₹141.50  Likely Target: ₹131  Downside Risk: 7.4%  Support: ₹137  Resistance: ₹145; ₹148; ₹151  IOC is also seen hovering around the 100-DMA, which stands at ₹141 levels. On the downside, the stock can slide to ₹131, with interim support anticipated around the 200-DMA at ₹137. Bias to remain unfavourable below ₹151. Intermediate resistance for the stock exists around ₹145 and ₹148 levels.