Ajit Pawar's death leaves Sharad Pawar with hard choices, not an exit

In the absence of his nephew, the responsibility of running the NCP estate may once again devolve on the patriarch, Sharad Pawar

Time and again, Maharashtra’s tallest leader, Sharad Pawar (85), has announced he wants to retire from politics. The last time was in November 2024, during the Maharashtra Assembly elections. Campaigning for his great nephew Yugendra, who was a candidate from his party, the Nationalist Congress Party Sharadchandra Pawar (NCP-SP), from Baramati, Mr Pawar spoke to voters as if addressing his extended family. “I am not in power ... and my tenure in the Rajya Sabha has one and a half years left. (After that) I will not contest any election in the future. (I) will have to stop somewhere ...” he said, thanking the voters of Baramati for electing him as their representative, for the Lok Sabha and the Assembly, 14 times. 

To this, Ajit Pawar, his nephew and NCP candidate against Yugendra, said: “People should stop after reaching a certain age...but some are not ready...even after turning 80, this person (there was no doubt whom he was referring to) is not ready to retire.” 

Never one to turn the other cheek, Mr Pawar’s response was robust. “Na tired hoon, na retired hoon.” (I am neither tired nor retired) he retorted. “Who are they to tell me to retire? I can still work.” 

Now, Ajit Pawar is no longer on the scene. Having become a member of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led (BJP-led) alliance Mahayuti, which is in power in Maharashtra, with the rank of deputy chief minister but disappointed with the limits to political growth, he was reportedly negotiating a return to the family bosom before he died. We will never know how far the merger negotiations had progressed. But this much is clear: In the absence of his nephew, the responsibility of running the NCP estate — which is considerable — may once again devolve on the patriarch, Sharad Pawar. 

Party members in the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP have three options: They can persuade the senior Pawar to negotiate a merger, in which case some existing positions will be threatened, but it will be a smooth transition into the Mahayuti — and power. The next round of elections in Maharashtra (once the current Zilla Parishad polls are over) is not until 2029. 

Ajit Pawar’s position in the council of ministers is now vacant and Sports Minister Manikrao Kokate from his stable resigned in December after a criminal conviction. Ajit Pawar held the finance portfolio and the Maharashtra Budget needs to be tabled in March. It is unlikely that a new finance minister can be appointed so quickly and this job will likely fall to Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. But two positions in the Council of Ministers are vacant. That is a powerful argument for a merger and the Mahayuti route. 

The second option — for both the NCP factions — is to merge with the BJP. There is political equity here but no growth. It is a crowded political space. 

The third, faced particularly by NCP members like Jitendra Awhad, is to join the Congress. There are many constituencies where MLAs have won with the support of the minorities. Joining the BJP-led Mahayuti could endanger this vote. Joining the BJP will drive it away completely. 

This is only one numeral in a complicated political equation. The BJP will hold its own consultations to assess the cost-benefit analysis of keeping the NCP in the fold versus bringing the unified NCP into it. For, the latter will include Sharad Pawar. 

Leaders like Praful Patel, who is currently working president of the NCP and has declined the offer of a minister of state rank position in the Modi Council of Ministers (“because it was a demotion”), has suggested that Ajit Pawar’s widow, Sunetra, be made deputy chief minister in the state government. This is unlikely to fly because she is already a Rajya Sabha member barely halfway into her tenure. Besides, Ajit Pawar was a seasoned administrator handling complex portfolios like finance. His wife is a relative newbie. 

There are other complicated family dynamics at work involving colliding ambitions of nephews and cousins. Sharad Pawar will have to keep all these factors in mind as he negotiates further moves. His term in the Rajya Sabha ends in April. Despite having said he wouldn’t, he may have to return as member.