The evolution of US corporate valuations shows how scale has expanded relative to the global economy. In the 1870s, the New York Central Railroad reached $100 million, followed by Standard Oil at $1 billion in 1912. General Motors crossed $10 billion in 1955 (0.26 per cent of global gross domestic product), and General Electric reached $100 billion in 1995 (0.33 per cent of world GDP). By contrast, Apple at $3 trillion in 2023 (2.8 per cent of global GDP) and Nvidia at $5 trillion in 2025 (4.5 per cent of GDP) reflect a dramatic rise in a short period. The evolution has spanned different sectors: Infrastructure, energy, industrial goods, followed by a shift to knowledge industries. Earlier growth depended on controlling markets. Global expansion was constrained by local production needs, tariffs, and competition.
The rise of electronics and digital technology marked a shift to a knowledge economy, where value moved from raw materials to design and intellectual property. The Information Technology (IT) Agreement of 1996 eliminated tariffs on electronics, creating a global market where high-value products could scale instantly. The internet in the 2000s turned information into a tradable good, enabling digital products to reach global users without physical constraints. Strong network effects allowed early movers, largely US firms, to scale rapidly, create entry barriers for others, and achieve unprecedented valuations. In this era, intellectual property became the primary source of wealth. Even when manufacturing was outsourced, value accrued to those controlling design, technology, and platforms. The key to building global giants shifted from producing goods to owning and monetising ideas.
Compared to the US, India has a more regulated framework that may slow the journey to a trillion-dollar firm, though its large and growing market remains a key advantage. Indian corporate growth thus far has largely been in infrastructure, energy, finance, and IT services. These are sectors where scale depends on assets or labour. Even IT services, while technology-driven, are focused on delivery rather than owning platforms or intellectual property. As a result, despite strong growth, these models may face limits. They lack the exponential scaling potential of platform and intellectual property (IP)-driven businesses that have produced trillion-dollar companies globally.
The central insight is clear: India’s first trillion-dollar company will be built on technology it owns, not just operates.
India is beginning to build this foundation. A new generation of founders, inspired by companies such as Zoho, Freshworks, and Postman, is focusing on products and IP across artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors, and biotech. Large groups are also pivoting. For example, Reliance Industries, the Adani group, Tatas and others are moving beyond traditional sectors towards technology-led strategies.
Another possibility is that India’s first trillion-dollar company comes from an unexpected place. Not Reliance Industries or Tata Consultancy Services, but a small team in Bengaluru, Chennai, or Hyderabad building something niche today. History supports this. Nvidia began as a small startup in 1993, was valued at $8 billion in 2013, and grew to $5 trillion by 2025.
India is well placed for such breakthroughs. Its scale creates unique problems whose solutions can apply across the developing world. Take agriculture. With over 100 million farmers and high post-harvest losses, an AI tool offering real-time, localised advice could unlock billions in value. The real market extends to nearly a billion farmers globally. A company solving this at scale would not resemble a services firm, but rather a company like Nvidia—owning a critical technology the world depends on.
Healthcare offers a similar opportunity. Despite large numbers of trained doctors, access to specialists remains uneven. AI diagnostics can bridge this gap, but require large, diverse datasets, something India uniquely generates at scale. A trusted, regulator-approved AI diagnostic platform built on such data could serve not just India, but many low- and middle-income countries facing similar challenges.
Nvidia led the first AI wave by building chips for data centres. The next phase shifts to “edge AI”, running models on devices like phones, sensors, and vehicles. This demands smaller, energy-efficient, task-specific chips. The market is still open and far less capital-intensive than building large models. India’s growing chip design ecosystem, driven by IITs and startups, is well-positioned. A firm that designs edge-AI chips for agriculture, healthcare, or industry could tap a vast global market, while owning core technology. The lesson is clear: In the knowledge era, the highest value accrues to those who own the defining technology, not those who merely deploy it.
We may not know which Indian company will reach a trillion dollars, but it will not do so by merely using others’ technology. It will get there by owning a critical part of it. As seen with Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, the highest valuations accrue to those who control the defining technologies of their era. India’s first trillion-dollar company will be no different.
The author is Chairman, UPSC, and former Defence Secretary. The views are personal
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