US-China power play in Bangladesh

The US-China rivalry is now playing out in India's backyard – in Bangladesh. China has openly supported the Sheikh Hasina government in the wake of targeted sanctions by the US some months earlier against the country's notorious Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), allegedly responsible for the extrajudicial killing of the regime's critics. The support also comes in the wake of the US threatening to deny visas to anyone interfering in the conduct of free and fair polls in Bangladesh. 

The Chinese statement may be a geopolitical game-changer in the region that could impact not only India's "Look East Policy" but also the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy.

On June 14, a reporter from the Chinese Communist party's official newspaper Global Times asked foreign office spokesperson Wang Wenbin for China's reaction to "recent" statements by Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina regarding sanctions and the US ability to topple governments. Without naming the US, Wang said, "… a certain country [the US] has long been interfering in the internal affairs of Bangladesh and many other developing countries under the pretext of democracy and human rights." China, he said, was ready to help Bangladesh and other countries to counter hegemonism and power politics: "We firmly support Bangladesh in safeguarding its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity." 

It appears that Bangladesh will be the new battleground for a war of influence between the US and China in the Indo-Pacific. 

However, the operational significance of China's verbose declaration is unclear. No country can give another assurance about defending its territorial integrity etc., unless arrangements are in place for the use of the defence forces of one in the territory of the other. India, as a friendly country, hardly constitutes a threat to Bangladesh's sovereignty. Nor does the US trying to facilitate free and fair elections amount to a threat to Bangladesh's sovereignty or territorial integrity. So, all that China's pronouncements mean is that China will stand with Sheikh Hasina irrespective of how elections are conducted in 2024.

India has been relatively muted about the growing Chinese footprint in Bangladesh as long as the Awami League government delivers on Indian interests. Under Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh has helped India with security issues -- especially by denying shelter to the separatist movements from India's northeast region. India has also been allowed transit routes to three of its north-eastern states, Tripura, Meghalaya and Assam, via road, rail, river and sea. Two seaports in Bangladesh – Chattogram and Mongla and four riverways will link Kolkata and Murshidabad to Assam, Tripura and Meghalaya. Further cross-border truck traffic can take place now via Bibirbazar to Srimantpur (Tripura), via Akhaura to Agartala (Tripura), via Sheola to Sutarkandi (Assam) and via Tamabil to Dawki (Meghalaya).

Both countries stand to gain by increase in goods traffic as Bangladeshi trucks, trains, and vessels will be used to carry merchandise. Bangladesh will earn transit fees and use the transport infrastructure built under Indian lines of credit to increase its exports. No wonder then that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has described the relationship under Sheikh Hasina's leadership as the "golden chapter" of India-Bangladesh ties.

Although India's public position has been that it will deal with any government elected by the people of Bangladesh, it has put its weight firmly behind the Awami League government of Prime Minister Hasina for the last three general elections, irrespective of how the polls were conducted. The US, however, has more openly questioned Bangladesh's allegedly flawed electoral processes.

Should India worry about China now firmly backing Sheikh Hasina? Bangladesh foreign minister AK Abdul Momen has said Dhaka will attend the BRICS summit as a guest in August when it is likely to be invited to join the grouping, along with eight other countries. BRICS aims to create a new global order to counter the dominance of the US and the US dollar. It is anybody's guess where Bangladesh will stand in BRICS. Bangladesh is already a part of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor.

Compared to the US, India has far greater and immediate strategic stakes in Bangladesh– controlling insurgencies in its north-east, access and transit to its north-eastern states and protecting the Chicken's Neck or Siliguri Corridor linking the rest of India to its north-eastern states. India's access to its north-east could be affected by China getting free play in areas of strategic interest due to Chinese investments in the Teesta River Comprehensive Management Project, the Akhaura-Sylhet railway line and its access to the Sylhet and Saidpur airports. 

The possible role of foreign powers and their proxies remains a serious concern for India with Manipur up in flames, Naga insurgents sheltering in Ruili in China's Yunnan province bordering Myanmar and leaders of several north-eastern insurgent groups hiding in Myanmar's Sagaing Division. The presumed presence of Chinese Peoples' Liberation Army sailors at the BNS Sheik Hasina submarine base in Pekua in Cox's Bazar, where three Chinese-made submarines are to be berthed, will also worry India.

In the short term, India may claim it has no option but to support the friendly regime in Dhaka. However, Shaikh Hasina will be 76 years old when the next general election takes place. India will have to craft a policy of dealing with the next generation of leaders. Also, it will have to consider the people's mood in Bangladesh, which is rapidly turning anti-India and is unlikely to improve if India is seen supporting a flawed electoral outcome once again. 

Due to its commitment to Sheikh Hasina, India may not want to be seen standing with the US, but equally, it cannot cede ground to the extension of Chinese hegemony in Bangladesh. Therefore, it needs to chart a more imaginative diplomatic course in Bangladesh. However, laziness and lethargy seem to have gripped Indian diplomacy even as China's chessboard is being reset there to India's disadvantage.

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