Heights of diplomacy

G20 unambiguously enhanced the PM's prestige

Against the odds, the G20 summit reached a consensus on the Leaders’ Declaration in New Delhi on the first day of the two-day meeting, offering a clear indication of current geopolitical alignments and adding to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stature as a global leader. To be sure, the much-awaited statement on the Ukraine war reflected a significant dilution from the condemnatory language of the Bali Declaration, which Foreign Minister S Jaishankar explained as a reflection of changed geopolitical circumstances. The Bali Declaration repeated the language of a majority UN vote deploring “in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine”. The Delhi Declaration deployed oblique and anodyne wording about refraining from the use of force “to seek territorial acquisition” against an independent state.

Though India deserves kudos for an adroit diplomatic victory, the credit also lies with the G7. Led by the US, the world’s seven richest democracies appear to have taken a political decision to ensure the success of the summit by agreeing to a recalibrated compromise statement on Ukraine. This much was clear from the intensity of Washington’s outreach to New Delhi. By following up a state visit with a bilateral meeting just months later and another joint statement involving collaboration in military and artificial intelligence, the US has sent strong signals that the West has chosen to double down on its bet on India, and that Mr Modi is willing to go the extra mile to achieve that end. A new and unexceptionable paragraph on religious tolerance in the Delhi Declaration may have sought to symbolically balance any misgivings the G7 may harbour on this subject.

The Delhi Declaration has unambiguously enhanced India’s and Mr Modi’s prestige. For instance, India’s initiative in advocating the inclusion of the African Union as a permanent member — the first expansion of the bloc since its inception in 1999 — and Mr Modi’s invitation to seat the head of the group point to a fulfilment of New Delhi’s ambitions to assume leadership of the global south, mainly natural resource-rich Africa. The question is where these key developments leave China and the absent President Xi Jinping, the diplomatic elephant in Bharat Mandapam. Mr Xi’s decision to stay away was certainly unusual, given that Chinese leaders have attended every leadership summit since its inception. The accession of the African Union under Mr Modi’s aegis is likely to have wrong-footed Beijing, which has long considered Africa its exclusive sphere of influence. Equally, the Declaration managed to hold the majority line on debt relief to developing countries being a joint responsibility, in spite of China’s insistence so far that multilateral lenders take a haircut as well.

But given that geopolitics is never a zero-sum game, the unexceptionable paragraphs on Ukraine suggest that the interests of China (and by extension of Russia) have managed to prevail on the most critical question facing the bloc today. This implication was clear from Kyiv’s response to the Delhi Declaration hours after it was put out in the public domain. A statement by the Ukrainian foreign ministry bluntly stated that the G20’s joint declaration was “nothing to be proud of”. The compulsions of realpolitik suggest that, for the moment at least, Kyiv is in a minority of one.