Pakistan's destiny

Civilian-military conflict never ends well

Former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan’s confrontation with the all-powerful military-intelligence establishment that brought him and his 27-year-old Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) to power in 2018 has captured the headlines for its roiling drama and brinkmanship since his ouster from power in April 2022. Now out on bail for two weeks on over 100 corruption cases against him, Mr Khan has suggested that his fate lies in assassination — he claims army- and ISI-linked actors made an attempt on his life in November 2022 — exile, or a 10-year incarceration (which could end in execution). At least two of his predecessors met such ends. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who initially served as minister in the Ayub Khan dictatorship, was arrested after a coup by Mohammad Zia-ul-Haq, then chief of army staff, and subsequently hanged in 1979. His daughter Benazir Bhutto, returning from self-exile to fight election in 2007, was shot dead at a political rally soon after her return. Then president and dictator Pervez Musharraf was widely suspected as being complicit in her death, though nothing was proven.

Given the extreme nature of the current conflict between Mr Khan and the army, which has dragged on for over a year, it is difficult to foresee a peaceful resolution to the crisis. Mr Khan, who has displayed a remarkable predilection for Trump-style theatrics to mobilise his base of young supporters, has been at the receiving end of some unexpected drama by the army. He was arrested last week during a court appearance by a paramilitary force at the behest of the National Accountability Bureau, which is headed by a retired lieutenant general (interestingly, he had unleashed the NAB to hound out political opponents when he was in power). His arrest — he was subsequently released under court orders — sparked violence among his supporters who set fire to the residence of the corps commander in Lahore. This no-holds-barred confrontation with the army, whose current chief, General Asim Munir, is a protégé of the former army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, an ally turned foe of Mr Khan, who has accused him of plotting with the US for his ouster. General Munir had previously been ISI chief, an appointment Mr Khan unsuccessfully sought to prevent, offering General Bajwa an extension in return.

Though this spat was the proximate starting point of Mr Khan’s problems, there are signs that the army’s opposition to Mr Khan is by no means a monolithic force. There are said to be strong pro-Imran Khan forces within the army, among them the Lahore corps commander, who reportedly stood by as his official residence was torched by PTI forces. Meanwhile, this latest showdown between the civilian and military forces does nothing to address the depth of Pakistan’s economic troubles, which began on Mr Khan’s watch. With economic growth stalled, inflation raging at 36 per cent or more, the currency hitting new lows, and forex sufficient to cover about a month of imports, Pakistan’s ability to pay its debts has been an open question. Though the Chinese grudgingly agreed to roll over some of its debt, the International Monetary Fund has delayed a bailout package since November. Crises such as this tend to have a radicalising impact on people. This appears to be Pakistan’s destiny — again.