Water budgeting: India needs better planning as scarcity risks rise

As extreme weather, shrinking aquifers, and rising demand strain already-fragile ecosystems, traditional supply-side approaches are proving insufficient, placing India at a critical juncture in its water-governance journey. A new NITI Aayog report, “Water Budgeting in Aspirational Blocks”, has done well to shift focus towards scientifically planning water availability rather than reacting to scarcity. At the heart of this effort is Varuni, a first-of-its-kind app-based water-budgeting tool piloted across 18 blocks representing India’s varied ecological landscapes — from the Himalayan state of Sikkim to the coastal plains of Tamil Nadu and the dry tracts of Bundelkhand. The findings are sobering. Several blocks, including Namchi in Sikkim (94 per cent), Gangiri in Uttar Pradesh (60 per cent), and Baldeogarh in Madhya Pradesh (53 per cent), face severe water deficits. Rajasthan’s Kotri and Abu Road are already extracting groundwater beyond 100 per cent of recharge levels. Meanwhile, paradoxically, blocks like Fatehpur in Bihar and Abu Road generate significant runoff, yet use only a fraction of the available stored water.

 

Planners can identify real deficits and feasible interventions by estimating inflows like rainfall, surface storage, groundwater recharge, inter-basin transfers, and matching those against domestic, agricultural, livestock, and industrial demand. Importantly, this method aligns with global best practices. Israel’s water-pricing and recycling measures, Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin reforms, and California’s groundwater sustainability mandates have all shown that data-backed decision-making is key to long-term resilience. The report also makes it clear that agriculture remains the fulcrum of India’s water stress, consuming 80-90 per cent of the available freshwater. Without crop diversification, micro-irrigation, and conjunctive-use strategies, budgeting alone will not bend the curve. Encouragingly, blocks like Vijaypur in Madhya Pradesh show that integrated use of surface and groundwater, supported by irrigation infrastructure, can create surplus even in high-demand landscapes.

 

Erratic monsoon rains, longer dry periods, and more frequent floods mean India can no longer rely on historical rainfall patterns for planning. A dynamic water budget, updated annually, may be needed. This transition demands capacity building at the block level, better hydrological data systems, and a cultural shift towards treating water as a finite asset rather than an endlessly renewable commodity. Equally important is governance innovation. Kerala’s gram panchayat-level budgeting under the Haritha Keralam Mission and the community-led groundwater planning model under the Atal Bhujal Yojana demonstrate that compliance and sustainability improve when citizens participate.

 

The way forward must combine technology, community participation, and institutional accountability. A national rollout of Varuni, linked to Jal Jeevan Mission dashboards, and crop-insurance platforms, could help states prioritise investments — whether recharge structures, spring rejuvenation, canal lining, or wastewater reuse. Equally crucial is capturing data on industrial demand and climate variability, now missing in most block records. India’s per-capita water availability may fall below 1,400 cubic metres by 2030, entering the “water-stressed” category. But with transparent water budgets guiding policies, cropping patterns, and infrastructure design, it can be made possible to move from fragmented interventions to anticipatory, data-driven, accountable water governance.