A high-stakes, big-bang bypoll in Bankipur Assembly constituency

The election will test popularity of Bihar's new CM Samrat Choudhary

Bypolls are a low-key affair because they are necessitated by the death or resignation of the person holding the seat. But not so with the impending one in the Bankipur Assembly constituency, earlier called Patna West. The rise of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President Nitin Nabin took place through a Bankipur bypoll, which he had won 20 years ago following the death of his father, the incumbent. Now it is Nabin’s resignation that has led to another bypoll, in which Prashant Kishor, founder of the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), will make his debut in electoral politics from the same seat.

 

Scheduled for July 30, alongside the bypolls in Datia (Madhya Pradesh) and Manjalpur (Gujarat), the Bankipur contest has become the first major electoral test of Kishor’s political experiment. In the Bihar Assembly polls last year, the JSP fared poorly, contesting 238 of the 243 seats and failing to win one, with its candidates losing their deposits in 236 of them. The party secured a mere 3.3 per cent of the vote polled.

 

According to Sanjay Kumar, co-director of Lokniti-CSDS, the importance of this contest lies less in its impact on the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which has a massive majority in the Bihar Assembly, and more in what it means for Kishor’s political future.

 

Campaigning has already witnessed twists and turns. Days after announcing Abhishek Kumar Sinha as its candidate, the BJP was forced to replace him after he withdrew his nomination, citing family reasons. The party quickly fielded Neeraj Kumar Sinha, seeking to ensure that organisational disruption did not overshadow a seat it has dominated for nearly two decades. Kishor seized on the development, claiming it reflected nervousness in the BJP, a charge dismissed by the ruling party.

 

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has fielded Rekha Kumari Gupta.

 

The JSP too is seeing setbacks. Four of its senior leaders joined the BJP during the campaign.

 

Bankipur has been a BJP stronghold since 1995. Nitin Nabin’s father, Nabin Kishore Prasad Sinha, held the seat till his death in 2006, representing it four times on the trot. Following his father’s death, Nitin Nabin entered politics and won the bypoll in 2006, and retained the seat ever since, winning all elections with almost a 60 per cent vote share or more.  

 

Nearly 379,000 voters, particularly belonging to upper castes such as Kayasthas and Vaishyas, dominate the constituency. Political estimates place Kayasthas at around 15 per cent of the electorate and Vaishyas at about 9 per cent. Reflecting this social arithmetic, the BJP has consistently fielded Kayastha candidates, including Nitin Nabin, Abhishek Kumar Sinha and now Neeraj Kumar Sinha. 

 

Kishor has turned Nitin Nabin’s resignation into a campaign issue. “The BJP considers Bankipur its stronghold. Voters here have repeatedly reposed their trust in Nitin Nabin. But he lost no time in forgetting them. He abandoned the seat at the first opportunity to enter Parliament,” he said.

 

Despite the heightened attention surrounding the contest, Sanjay Kumar says electoral history still favours the BJP.

   

Many firsts for BJP

 

The bypoll is the first Assembly election in Bihar since Samrat Choudhary in April became the state’s BJP chief minister. A convincing victory would strengthen the party’s claim that voters have accepted the BJP’s direct leadership after the end of Nitish Kumar’s two-decade tenure. A narrow victory — or an upset — would provide the Opposition an opportunity to question whether the BJP’s dominance is beginning to weaken.

 

“One can say that this election is going to test the popularity of the new chief minister,” Sanjay Kumar said.

 

For Kishor, who did not contest the Bihar Assembly polls, this contest will determine whether the popularity he built during his statewide padyatra and public meetings could be translated into votes.

   

Beyond Bankipur 

The other two bypolls have their own political significance. In Datia, the BJP’s decision to deny the ticket to former home minister Narottam Mishra, a six-time member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA), has led to bitterness. The party has fielded Ashutosh Tiwari against the Congress’ Kunwar Ghanshyam Singh. Following the announcement Mishra’s supporters staged demonstrations in Datia, raising slogans against the state BJP leadership. Eventually, Mishra came around to supporting the party candidate Tiwari. The bypoll was necessitated after Congress MLA Rajendra Bharti was disqualified following his conviction in a bank fraud case.

 

In Manjalpur, the bypoll follows the death of veteran BJP leader and former Gujarat minister Yogesh Patel. The BJP’s decision to nominate Satish Patel, a cooperative sector leader who is not a resident of the constituency, over several local aspirants, has sparked discontent within sections of the party. He faces Gujarat Congress Vice-President Bhikhabhai Rabari.