PM Modi faces election threat ahead of LS polls in Oppn's INDIA coalition

By Mihir Sharma
 

If a man may be known by the enemies he makes, we have learned a little bit more about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week. Almost all of the most vocal opposition parties in India joined hands to announce a new alliance, optimistically called the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). If nothing goes wrong — although much could — INDIA will be on the ticket in most battleground states for next year’s general elections.
 

Consequently, India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is objectively much more vulnerable than it was last week. While Modi himself maintains one of the highest approval ratings of any world leader, his party is not as popular as he is — and votes are cast for parties, not prime ministers, in Indian elections.

India’s Westminster-style system means, in addition, that opposition unity can have more of an impact than in places such as Turkey or Hungary, where large opposition blocs have recently failed to unseat powerful populists. In the last election, for example, Modi’s BJP only won 37% of the votes cast, but was rewarded with over 300 seats out of 543. Similarly, Modi’s party won handsomely in his home state of Gujarat last year mainly because the opposition vote was split between two challengers — both of whom are now in the INDIA alliance.

Modi’s take-no-prisoners style of governance in his second term is almost certainly to blame for endangering the BJP’s prospects. In its opening salvo at the incumbent government, members of the INDIA coalition name-checked the various issues that had brought them together. Many if not most of them related to the way in which opposition parties or the state governments they control have been bullied and harassed through the misuse of federal power in recent years.

Indeed, some of the parties on stage at the INDIA launch meeting were facing existential crises — not because their leaders or platforms weren’t popular, but because the BJP had used its overwhelming financial and political power in New Delhi to peel away those parties’ elected legislators.

A lighter touch would have suited Modi well and would have been more in keeping with how India works. The decades in which the Congress Party dominated the country’s politics showed that political power can be retained in India most effectively by ensuring that your opposition has just enough space to survive, and never feels threatened enough to unite.

That said, the risks for Modi’s rivals are considerable, too. Creating a national, unified opposition could fuel political polarization, which might end up helping and not harming the BJP. Certainly, personalizing the insurgents’ campaign around Modi means they will have to contend with the prime minister’s undoubted personal popularity — which past attacks, however vigorous, have failed to dent.

It might have been smarter for the opposition to wait and forge a post-poll alliance using behind-the-scenes seat adjustments. This is a grouping of old enemies, many of whom remain at daggers drawn at the state level. The glare of publicity in the months leading up to the vote will only throw those differences into sharp relief.

There is one additional risk faced by a coalition created solely to keep Modi from a third term in office: It may forget to present a positive case for change. Politicians and intellectuals may be concerned by the BJP’s increasingly illiberal interpretation of India’s liberal constitutional ethos. But voters, by and large, seem either not to appreciate the risks — or not to care. If Modi campaigns on new plans, promises, and programs, while the opposition offers only complaints, then it’s game over for INDIA.

The toughest ask for the opposition, therefore, is to transform this moment of unity into something constructive: a concrete, alternative vision for what India should look like. They will need ideas that move beyond either criticizing the political and policy framework that Modi has created to keep himself in power or imitating it.

How do we know that India’s opposition coalition isn’t quite there yet? Well, its slightly ridiculous name, for one. Modi has a fondness for on-the-nose abbreviations. His government’s Covid-19 relief fund was drawn from something called the Prime Minister’s Citizen Assistance and Relief in Emergency Situations (PM-CARES) program.

In other words, INDIA sounds exactly like something Modi would have come up with. To win, INDIA shouldn’t play Modi’s game — it will have to play for, well, India.

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