China's 2025 trade surplus hits record $1.2 trillion despite Trump tariffs

China’s trade surplus climbed to $1.2 trillion in 2025, extending a record run as overseas shipments surprised with stronger growth at the end of the year. 

Despite a deepening plunge in sales to the US, overall exports increased 6.6 per cent in December from a year earlier, growing at the quickest pace in three months. That was faster than any forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists, whose median was for a 3.1 per cent gain.

 

Imports also rose more than expected with a jump of 5.7 per cent, leaving a surplus of $114 billion — the most in six months, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs on Wednesday.  

 

 

The swelling surplus underscores the imbalance between China’s manufacturing strength and stubbornly weak domestic consumption. While exports have powered the world’s second-biggest economy, its years-long property slump and falling investment are restraining the country’s appetite for foreign goods.

 

Despite a global backlash, Chinese companies aggressively sought out customers in other markets when shipments to the US plunged after President Donald Trump hiked tariffs. Exports to the US slumped more than 30 per cent in December, among their worst declines this year.

 

For the full year of 2025, exports to Africa saw the fastest growth among major regions with a 26 per cent gain from a year ago. Shipments to the Southeast Asian nations in the Asean group expanded 13 per cent, and those to the European Union and Latin America rose 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively. Exports to the US plunged 20 per cent.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“China’s stronger-than-expected export growth in December shows its export engine continued to support the economy in the final quarter of 2025 when domestic drivers weakened. Higher shipments to non-US markets again more than offset the tariff-driven slump in exports to the US. Looking ahead, export resilience is likely to extend into 2026.” 

— Eric Zhu

Looking ahead, global demand for China’s goods and the competitiveness of its exports will likely keep foreign shipments on the rise in 2026, especially if the trade ceasefire with the US holds. 

 

This week, Trump announced new tariffs on goods from countries trading with Iran, threatening to derail his one-year truce with China, the world’s top buyer of Iranian oil.

 

Other risks abound. Tensions over the influx of goods are building with major partners such as Europe. And a high base of comparison last year means export growth will probably moderate in the months ahead. 

 

“The external environment for China’s trade development is still grim and complex” in 2026 due to slower global economic growth and geopolitical fragmentation, Wang Jun, deputy head of the customs authority, said during a briefing in Beijing Wednesday. But “with more diversified trading partners and strengthened resilience, the fundamentals of China’s trade remain solid,” he said. 

The Chinese government has also moved to rein in the exports of some goods to ease trade tensions and as part of an effort to address excess capacity in several industries that’s adding deflationary pressure on the economy. 

 

Authorities will cancel the export tax rebates on hundreds of products including solar cells and batteries from April, according to an official announcement on Friday.

 

Exports of higher-value goods surged in 2025, with products including semiconductors, cars and ships recording gains of more than 20 per cent from a year ago. Meanwhile, some lower-end exports such as toys, shoes and clothing contracted.

 

Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Groep NV, warned China is facing “some pushback” as its higher-end products become more competitive globally. 

 

“The key to continuing win-win cooperation is to boost China’s domestic demand and support imports,” he said. Overall, the stronger-than-forecast figures are “an encouraging sign for China as well as trading partners, given we were looking at a potential deceleration due to last year’s frontloading effect.”