Fitch Cuts viability rating for PNB, warns IDBI vulnerable to downgrade

Affirms issuer default rating for nine banks including SBI, ICICI Bank

Rating agency Fitch Ratings on Tuesday downgraded Punjab National Bank (PNB)'s Viability Rating  by one notch to 'bb' on the growing risk to the bank's capital position from a mounting stock of stressed assets. It warned IDBI Bank about vulnerability to a downgrade due to a rise in the stressed assets ratio. It affirmed the Long Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at “BBB-” for banks such as State Bank of India (SBI),  PNB, Canara Bank, IDBI Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Bank of Baroda and its subsidiary in New Zealand. For Chennai-based India Bank IDR has been affirmed at “BB+”. The outlook on IDRs is stable.

PNB's Viability Rating (VR) has been downgraded by one notch to 'bb' to reflect the growing risk to the bank's capital position from its mounting stressed assets, which has risen at a faster rate than its capital replenishment. The Delhi-based public sector lender’s capital buffers are unlikely to improve significantly even though the government is likely to inject capital into the bank in the financial year ending March 31, 2016 (FY16).

IDBI Bank's VR, which is also at 'bb', is also vulnerable to a downgrade. This is due to rise in the stressed asset ratio to 13.6 per cent in FY15 from 11 per cent in FY14, and a traditionally thin capital buffer and higher exposure to stressed sectors.

IDBI's VR affirmation reflects the positive impact the government capital injection of Rs 2,230 crore, the slower loan growth and its greater focus on retail and priority-sector loans are likely to have on its capital buffers.

The outlook for Indian bank credit profiles in FY16 is more positive following the difficult year in FY15, when system-wide loans increased by 9.7 per cent, the slowest pace in a decade. There are, however, challenges from stressed sectors such as infrastructure and steel, high corporate leverage, and continued pressure on asset quality and capital.

The affirmation of ratings of most banks factor in a slower rise in non-performing loans and expectations of government capital injections in public sector banks. The asset quality would not deteriorate materially from the current levels.