Didi decides to dump UPA

Gives time till Friday new allies may leave motley-crew govt more vulnerable to political pressure and unable to take legislative route to reforms

Whether the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government was weaker or stronger was debatable late this evening after the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress announced it would pull out. That would leave the UPA government 19 MPs short of a parliamentary majority.

Trinamool ministers would resign on Friday, Banerjee announced in Kolkata. But, she left a window open for negotiation: that the government should reconsider the diesel price hike, roll back the decision to allow FDI (foreign direct investment) in multi-brand retail and tweak the LPG subsidy cap.

Banerjee said she could no longer support the anti-people measures of the UPA and her party was not consulted on any of the decisions in question. However, at a press conference, she contradicted that moments later by saying she had asked the government to allow at least 24 LPG cylinders a year to every family and asked it not to raise diesel prices to such an extent.

PARLIAMENTARY MATHS

REQUIRED STRENGTH: 272
UPA (273) - TMC (19): 254
UPA (273) - TMC (19) + BSP (21) + RJD (4): 279
UPA (273) - TMC (19) + BSP (21) + RJD (4) + Samajwadi Party (22): 301

IF TMC PULLS OUT ON FRIDAY...

• The President of India will be informed
• President Pranab Mukherjee will have to take a view whether the govt is stable or if it needs a vote of confidence to prove its majority
• In the event of a confidence vote, a special session of Parliament will have to be convened
• That will mean an unexpected threat

She announced her party would not participate in a bandh called for Thursday (in which the Left parties, her principal rivals, are serious participants) and permitted her ministers to stay on till Friday, effectively giving the government another 72 hours to act.

The government is unlikely to yield to this. It cannot afford the Bengal package of interest waiver on the state’s loans — something the Trinamool Congress has been seeking; and a rollback of either the FDI decision or the diesel price decision will impact its image badly. There is no guarantee Banerjee will support the government even after a small rollback that Finance Minister P Chidambaram indicated might be possible, two days ago.

Congress leader Janardan Dwivedi said there could be rethinking on those decisions, soon after Banerjee’s announcement. Sources conceded that though friends and invisible allies would not let the government fall, the prospect of reform through the legislative route could be abandoned conclusively. Talks are already on with the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party. A series of meetings are planned between Congress chief Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh tomorrow.

If the Trinamool does exit, the government will be more vulnerable than ever to political blackmail, threat and coercion to pass even the smallest legislation. Union Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs Rajeev Shukla said an ally leaving a coalition was always a blow.

On the other hand, the government is likely to move at a fast clip on projects that do not need legislative sanction.

Banerjee contacted the DMK and other parties, apparently in a bid to wreck the UPA alliance itself. Although the DMK is supporting the bandh, it will have its own compulsions about how far it can go with Banerjee. Two days ago, it was Mulayam Singh Yadav who was attempting to lead an alternative third front. Forcefully divesting him of that position is Mamata Banerjee, who will become the undisputed leader of a third front minus the Left if she sticks to her decision to leave the UPA.