If odd-even rule was here to stay, people would become more inventive: Dinesh Mohan

Interview with India's respected transport experts

Though the verdict is still out on whether the odd-even car rule in New Delhi reduced air pollution, many have applauded it for reducing traffic congestion in the city. In an email interview, Dinesh Mohan, retired professor emeritus at the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, and an expert on road safety norms, tells Manavi Kapur that Delhi needs to look at public transport systems with a wider lens

Is the odd-even rule the right way forward for Delhi?

International experience suggests that whenever a major infrastructure change is made in a large urban conglomeration (for example, new highways, metro lines, pedestrian-only areas, park and ride facilities and congestion charging), it takes about three to six months for the system to settle down. This is because the people affected try out all possibilities to find a new equilibrium and keep experimenting. Very often, the new equilibrium turns out to be completely different from what was envisaged.

The experiment in Delhi cannot reflect long-term behaviour changes. All schools were closed and that takes away about a quarter of the daily trips. All car owners knew in advance that it will last only two weeks and, for all practical purposes, they had to alter their behaviour only for five or six days. Many one-car families had their old motorcycle hanging around for the alternate day, others may have printed a false number plate, while some others got a false CNG sticker. Even if each of these coping mechanisms was used by 10-15 per cent of the car owners, we get a majority making do with a temporary measure. Therefore, the experiment tells us nothing about how people would react if it was a permanent measure. My suspicion is that if everyone knew this is here to stay, they would not only buy cheap vehicles and become more inventive, but also much more angry.

Has this experiment worked elsewhere in the world?

It is quite clear that the odd-even experiment has not had a major influence on the overall environment in the city. Therefore, it only serves as a publicity gimmick. There is no city in the world where such a measure has worked over any length of time, nor has it reduced pollution significantly as an isolated intervention.

Is Delhi's public transportation system ready to handle a long-term implementation of this plan?

A successful public transportation system does not depend on provision of buses or metros alone. There are two factors that decide whether or not car users shift to public transport. One, there should be no parking available where they are going. Two, the car speeds should be less than that of buses and metros, and buses should operate on reserved lanes.

What does the city need to do to improve its existing system?

The quality of the access trip to the metro station or the bus stop is more important than the technology of the buses or metro trains. If women get teased on the way, if the footpaths are narrow, dirty, uneven and inaccessible for the disabled, and if there is fear of accidents, then you lose a large number of potential users. Clean, safe and convenient sidewalks are essential along with surface road crossing facilities every 500 metres.

Widespread public transport use also demands that affordable and safe taxi/auto systems be available at all times. This gives potential users the confidence that they do not need to own a personal vehicle for special occasions. At the same time, we must remember that availability of public transport is not necessarily a complete solution. At present, about 35-40 per cent of people walk or bicycle to work. If these people shift to public transport, pollution will increase in the city. Therefore, provision of safe bicycle paths along all arterial roads in the city is also essential for ensuring cleaner air in the future.

The Delhi government is also going to scrap the BRT corridor. What is a possible alternative to this corridor?

This is a very curious decision for the Aam Aaadmi Party to take on behalf of the khaas aadmi. No pedestrian, bicyclists or bus user has demanded that this corridor be dismantled. A High Court ruling dismissed a PIL against this corridor just a couple of years ago and ruled that the corridor was beneficial for the citizens of Delhi. None of the safety and design audits of the corridor have reported any major design defect. The government's decision to scrap this corridor and promote building of signal-free highways in the city sends a very wrong message and ensures that bus transport remains inefficient in the city. The government has ignored worldwide experience that reserved bus lanes are needed only where there is car congestion. There is no other alternative if we want to promote public transport.