Southwest monsoon over entire country expected to be 'normal' in 2022: IMD

The southwest monsoon over the country as a whole is expected to be ‘normal’ this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted on Thursday. The June-September rainfall could be 99 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) with a margin error of 5 per cent, it said. Monsoon rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered to be ‘normal’.

The weather office on Thursday reduced the benchmark to define normal southwest monsoon rainfall to 868.6 mm from the previous 880.6 mm on the basis of availability of fresh data from its network of rain guages across the country. The new all-India rainfall normal has been calculated on the basis of rainfall data over a 50-year period from 1971-2020.

Earlier this week, private weather forecasting agency Skymet had said the southwest monsoon in 2022 was expected to be 'normal' at 98 per cent of the LPA.

A good southwest monsoon is expected to boost agriculture production, which in turn should ease some of the inflationary concerns in the months to come while aiding the overall economic recovery.

“The prediction of a normal monsoon might bring some cooling effect in certain commodities, particularly domestically grown vegetables. But there are issues related to imported inflation as in the case of edible oils. Uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict would continue to cause inflationary pressure and despite a normal monsoon, inflation is expected to stay in the 6 per cent-plus band, if not higher,” Ashok Gulati, Infosys chair professor for agriculture at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) told Business Standard.

The IMD said that La Niña conditions were prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region and the latest climate models indicated that the same might prevail during the monsoon months of June to September as well.

Presently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean and the latest forecasts indicate that the neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue until the beginning of southwest monsoon season, it said. “Thereafter, enhanced probability for negative IOD conditions is predicted,” the IMD said.

On the third vital factor that influences the Indian monsoon, the IMD said it was ‘monitoring’ sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans, and will update the forecasts in June.

"With contact-intensive jobs reviving in urban areas, we remain concerned that a shift in labour availability may constrain acreage for the kharif season. Moreover, availability and pricing of fertilizers needs to be watched," Aditi Nayar, chief economist, ICRA, said.