Mystery of the missing millions: Why UN projects higher India population

Its estimate of India's population by the end of the decade is 41 mn higher than TGPP's 1.47 billion

Earlier this year, the United Nations’ World Population Prospects study projected that India’s population would be over 1.51 billion by 2030. This was 41.1 million higher than the Indian government’s Technical Group on Population Projections (TGPP) estimate of 1.47 billion by the end of the decade in its latest report from July 2020.

The roots of this 41-million gap lie in historical inaccuracies. While the growth rates projected by India and the UN have moved in tandem since the 1960s, the UN had overestimated India’s population between 1951 and 1961.

A population bulletin by the international body from 1962 had highlighted that, given the inconsistencies in India’s estimates, it projected India’s population using life expectancy tables and estimated death rates. So, starting 1961, the UN’s estimates showed a gap of 11 million over the Census.

Though the variation in growth rates starting 1961 has been only marginal — the UN projects a higher increase in population than India’s Census — the larger base adds to the population count. So, what started as an 11-million gap increased to 38 million by 2011 and is expected to go up to 41 million by 2030.

A Business Standard analysis, however, found that even though the UN overestimated India’s population, the growth rate was much lower than TGPP’s estimates.

While the population, according to TGPP, is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 1.02 per cent between 2011 and 2030, the UN predicts 1 per cent growth during the period.

Further analysis found that since 2001 the UN’s projected population growth rate has been lower than India’s estimates. Only for the period between 2025 and 2030 is India’s growth rate projection below the UN’s estimate for population growth rate.

India’s projections do not consider the havoc wreaked by Covid-19, whereas the UN estimates for 2022 possibly account for the impact of the pandemic.

While the UN’s 2019 projections showed India’s population growing at a compound annual rate of 0.94 per cent between 2019 and 2025, the new estimates show growth during this period at 0.85 per cent.

Estimates of death during the Covid period differ as well. While the government’s official figures estimate 530,596 deaths, a World Health Organization estimate has put the number at 4.7 million. A model by The Economist projected 5 million deaths during this period.

While the UN has been revising its estimates downwards, a comparison of TGPP data from previous reports shows a trend of upward revisions in forecasts.