Near-normal rainfall in first 10 days

Likely to reach central India by June 25; might cover entire country by June-end, except Northwest

The first 10 days of the southwest monsoon had a strong showing in the eastern and northeastern parts. However, rain for the central and northwestern parts remain a cause of concern.

According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country received 36.4 mm of rain on June 1-10, almost the normal average of 36.2 mm. However, that in the northwest, comprising the key grain producing states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, was 13 per cent below normal in the first 10 days. In central India, comprising Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra, it was 31 per cent below normal.  

In the east and northeast, it was 24 per cent above normal in these first 10 days.

IMD says conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of the monsoon over the rest of southern India and some parts of the east in the next one week.

The Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) said by June 17, an offshore trough along the west coast would be well established and thereafter rain will be above normal over the coast for around a week.

It said the monsoon might reach central India around June 25 and cover most of the country, except Northwest India, by the end of this month.

Skymet, the private weather forecast company, has also said there is a big chance of good and widespread rain across the country from June 13, due to multiple weather systems.

“This could be construed as a precursor to the monsoon onset over some parts. The activity is going to last till June 16 and could possibly be the rainiest spell of the,month so far,” Skymet said in its daily weather update.

On the negative side, IMD said in the week ending this Wednesday, rainfall intensity went down slightly and the showers across the country were around five per cent below normal, mainly due to the impact of Cyclone Ashobaa. The showers need to recoup quickly or the water levels in 91 major reservoirs across the country could drop below last year’s level, mainly in north India.

Data from the Central Water Commission showed these 91 reservoirs had 40.139 billion cubic metres of water,  26 per cent of their total storage capacity and about the same as last year’s level at this time.

At the end of last month, IMD had said the rains in 2015 were expected to be deficient across the country at 88 per cent of the long-period average, with the northwest being the worst sufferer.