Covid-19 crisis: Indian economy's road to recovery still has long way to go

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his recent remarks, said that green shoots have started appearing in the economy. He based his assessment on power consumption, fertiliser sales, kharif sowing, exports, and digital payments in retail among a few other developments. Adding some more parameters such as petrol consumption, purchasing manager's index for both manufacturing and services, and e-way bill generation shows a mixed bag for the economy. 

Fertiliser sales and kharif sowing show green shoots in the economy. However, agriculture was expected to be the only silver lining in the economy in the current financial year anyway. Generation of e-way bill also indicates greater consumption of goods. Digital payments in retail are yet to come to the pre-Covid levels. There is a contraction in power demand year-on-year. Exports have also started reducing. 
 

The PM referred to an absolute level of exports, saying this has reached the level of the pre-Covid period. Exports stood at $19.05 bn in May, against $27.65 billion in February, a month before the lockdown was announced. It stood at $21.41 bn in March, which is what the PM probably referred to.

 

(With inputs from Shreya Jai & Sanjeeb Mukherjee)
* Till June 17   Source: PPAC, Central Electricity Authority,  POSOCO, fertiliser ministry, Markit Economics, commerce department, GSTN, agriculture ministry, RBI